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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 23 December 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS MAKRINOS
As we are heading towards the end of the year we could argue that most of those involved in the shipping industry share mixed feelings for 2015. Th ...
Wednesday, 23 December 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSES FIRM
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery up $0.45 per ton (1.22%) month over month to US$ 37.20 per ton. The swap wa ...
Tuesday, 22 December 15
3800 GAR INDEX CLOSED AT US$ 22.03 PER TON; DOWN 0.15% W-O-W
COALspot.com: The 5000 GAR CS (i) coal index decline US$ 0.03 per ton (-0.07 %) week over week.
According to the CS (i) coal (system generated ...
Monday, 21 December 15
Q3' 2016 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED SLIGHTLY LOWER COMPARE TO Q1'16 CLOSING PRICE
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery up US$ 0.20 (0.48%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap is a ...
Sunday, 20 December 15
THE FREIGHT RATES FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA IS EXPECTED TO BE SOFT NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI facing all time low's this week. The bulk dry index closed at 477 points on 18 December 2015.
The cape index was als ...
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Coal Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Planning Commission, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
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