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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 31 December 15
2016 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP RALLY TO CLOSE AT $37.98/TON
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery rose another $1.48 per ton (4.05%) this past week compared to the sam ...
Wednesday, 30 December 15
FINAL DEALS OF THE YEAR TAKING PLACE, AS SHIP OWNERS PREPARE FOR 2016 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The Holidays’ investment lull has taken a grip over the newbuilding and S&P market for second hand vessels, as shipbrokers are reporting ...
Tuesday, 29 December 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS ROSE MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery rose US$ 0.68 (1.64%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap is ...
Monday, 28 December 15
Q2' 15 U.S. STEAM COAL EXPORTS TOTALED 7.0 MMST; DOWN 16.9% FROM Q1 2015 - EIA
COALspot.com: U.S. coal production during second quarter 2015 totaled 211.1 million short tons.
According to EIA’s preliminary quarterly ...
Monday, 28 December 15
NOVEMBER NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS DECLINED 11.87%; THE AVERAGE PRICE OF COAL EXPORTS ROSE 1.37%
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $1.120 billio ...
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- Planning Commission, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Coal Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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