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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 05 January 16
THE SHIPPING MARKET IN 2015 AND LOOKING FORWARD - BIMCO
Global economy: menacing clouds in the sky cast a shadow on global economic developments 2015 never really took off, even though the global economi ...
Tuesday, 05 January 16
4200 GAR COAL INDEX FALL TOWARD $27;SLIPPED 28.05% YEAR-TO-DATE
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index has not moved in the past week, averaging $40.12 per ton on last Thursday, according to CS (i) Coal Index ...
Monday, 04 January 16
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP REMAIN FLAT OVER CHRISTMAS & NEW YEAR HOLIDAYS
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery rose US$ 0.68 (1.64%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap is ...
Friday, 01 January 16
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP FOR Q1'16 DELIVERY CLOSED AT $36.75 PER TON
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap delivery Q1 2016 declined month on month but flat week over week.
According to AsiaClear OTC coal swap' ...
Thursday, 31 December 15
COAL PRICES FELL ON WEAK DEMAND
COALspot.com: Q1’ 2016 API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap decline month over month and slightly up week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 ...
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Coal Association
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
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