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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 26 December 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS KEEP DROPPING
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap delivery Q1 2016 declined month on month and week over week.
According to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's rep ...
Friday, 25 December 15
WEEKLY US COAL PRODUCTION ESTIMATES DIP 8.5%
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 14.7 million shor ...
Thursday, 24 December 15
Q3' 16 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP SHED US$ 0.60 PER TON OVER WEEK, AND STANDS AT US$ 43.25 PER TON
COALspot.com: Q1’ 2016 API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap decline month over month and slightly up week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 FOB R ...
Thursday, 24 December 15
GLOBAL MARINE FUEL REGULATIONS COULD SHOCK REFINING AND OIL MARKETS - OPEC | HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
IMO regulations call for global standards for sulphur content in marine fuel to be tightened to 0.5% from its present 3.5%. There is uncertainty ov ...
Thursday, 24 December 15
DRY BULKERS' VALUES ARE PLUNGING - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Dry bulk carriers’ values are falling across the board, as the fall of freight rates is taking its toll, as is to be expected. In fact, accor ...
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- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- White Energy Company Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
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