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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Sunday, 10 January 16
LNG BUNKERING IN ASIA: FUELING A PROMISING FUTURE? - REED SMITH
The requirement of a mandatory reduction of sulphur content in bunker fuel proposed by the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) poses a challe ...
Saturday, 09 January 16
BALTIC DRY INDEX SINKS 10% WEEK OVER WEEK TO AN ALL-TIME LOW OF 429 POINTS
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange’s main sea freight index, which tracks rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities, decline around 10% we ...
Friday, 08 January 16
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP FOR DELIVERY H1'16 REMAIN FLAT AS DEMAND DROPS OFF
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap delivery Q1 2016 declined month on month, flat week over week. The price for coal has been in a Dull Market sinc ...
Friday, 08 January 16
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FOR Q2'16 DELIVERY CLOSED UP $0.13 AT $45.50 PER TON
COALspot.com: Q1’ 2016 API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap decline month over month and slightly up week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 FOB R ...
Friday, 08 January 16
WEEKLY US COAL PRODUCTION DECLINES 1.6% TO 11.7 MMST, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 11.7million short ...
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The University of Queensland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
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