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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 18 January 16
Q1'16 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 42.50 PER TON; UP 1% MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery rose US$ 0.43 (1.02%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap is ...
Friday, 15 January 16
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS FIRM SLIGHTLY LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap delivery Q1 2016 declined month over month and week over week.
According to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's r ...
Friday, 15 January 16
SHIPPING: 2016 STARTED WITH MISERY ACROSS THE BOARD FOR SHIP OWNERS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
As one would have expected, the dry bulk market starter the new year where it left off in 2015, plunging to never seen before depths, as the market ...
Friday, 15 January 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION ROSE ACROSS ALL BASINS: EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.4 million shor ...
Thursday, 14 January 16
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FOR Q3 DELIVERY CLOSED $5.90 LOWER THAN Q1 PRICE
COALspot.com: Q1’ 2016 API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap up month over month and week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 FOB Richards Bay Coal ...
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- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PTC India Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The University of Queensland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- White Energy Company Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
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