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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 24 January 16
PANAMAX MARKET WEAKENS ACROSS THE BOARD
COALspot.com: The Baltic Dry Index, which gauges the cost of shipping dry bulk including iron ore, cement, grain, coal and fertiliser, fell ninetee ...
Friday, 22 January 16
WEEKLY US COAL PRODUCTION ESTIMATES ALMOST FLAT
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.3 million shor ...
Friday, 22 January 16
COAL PRICES TO REMAIN UNDER PRESSURE THIS YEAR
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap delivery Q1 2016 declined month on month and week over week. The falling trend of prices for coal was continuing ...
Friday, 22 January 16
Q3' 16 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 40.80; DECLINE $ 2.80 M-O-M
COALspot.com: Q1’ 2016 API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap up month over month and decline week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 FOB Richards B ...
Wednesday, 20 January 16
Q3'16 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED $ 2.40 LESSER THAN Q1'16 CLOSING PRICE OF $ 38.10
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery rose another $0.77 per ton (2.06%) this past week compared to the sam ...
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- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Planning Commission, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
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