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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 26 January 16
Q3'16 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP DROPPED BELOW $41 A TON
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery rose US$ 0.82 (1.94%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap is ...
Tuesday, 26 January 16
OUTLOOK FOR GLOBAL OIL MARKETS - OPEC SECRETARY GENERAL
Opening address by HE Abdalla S. El-Badri, OPEC Secretary General, at the Chatham House Conference: Middle East and North Africa Energy 2016, Theme ...
Monday, 25 January 16
5700 GAR COAL INDEX CLOSED $ 50.08 PER TON, $0.20 LOWER FROM LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin decline 1.35 percent week over week to averaging $39.39 per ton on this past Friday, ...
Monday, 25 January 16
SHOULD A DEFAULTING PARTY BE ENTITLED TO AN INNOCENT PARTY'S SAVING, FOLLOWING THEIR BREACH OF CONTRACT? - THE NEW FLAMENCO REVISITED
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
This case was addressed by the club in our of January 2015, when the High Court decision became available. The background ...
Monday, 25 January 16
DRY BULK SHIPPING: A MISERABLE START TO A NEW YEAR, WHERE THE MARKET STRUGGLES TO GROW AT ALL - BIMCO
The global production of steel dropped in 2015 compared to 2014, to a larger extent outside China, as China exported its surplus of steel to destin ...
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
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