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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Thursday, 28 January 16
WHAT ARE THE PROSPECTS FOR COAL IN LIGHT OF THE PARIS CLIMATE AGREEMENT? - GERMAN COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
This depends – says the VDKi – to a very great extent on who you want to believe more, the United Nations or the International Energy A ...
Thursday, 28 January 16
RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS FOR Q1,Q2 AND Q3 DELIVERIES FIRM THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Q1’ 2016 API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap rose month over month and week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 FOB Richards Bay Coa ...
Wednesday, 27 January 16
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS CLOSE MIXED
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery rose another $1.17 per ton (3.13%) this past week compared to the sam ...
Wednesday, 27 January 16
CHINA'S STALLING ECONOMY HAS HAD A GREAT EFFECT ON VARIOUS COMMODITIES; DECREASED DEMAND DRIVING COMMODITY PRICES LOWER AND LOWER - LINOS ALEXANDROS KOGEVINAS
Having gone through the first few weeks of 2016, it’s starting to look like another challenging year is ahead of us. Hopes for a recovery in ...
Wednesday, 27 January 16
WORLD HARD COAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION DECLINE IN 2015 FOR THE FIRST TIME IN OVER A DECADE - VDKI
COALspot.com: Seaborne hard coal trade and the changes in this area were decisively affected by China and India - VDKi.
China bears the g ...
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- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The University of Queensland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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