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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 01 February 16
INDONESIA'S SECOND LARGEST COAL MINER ADARO ENERGY HAS PRODUCED 51.46 MT IN 2015; 8% LOWER COMPARED TO FY14
COALspot.com: Adaro Energy, the Indonesia’s second largest coal producer by volume has produced 51.46 Mt in 2015, 8% lower compared to ...
Sunday, 31 January 16
BDI CONTINUED ITS FALL AND CLOSE AT A FRESH RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY
COALspot.com: The Baltic Dry Index, which gauges the cost of shipping dry bulk including iron ore, cement, grain, coal and fertilizer, continued it ...
Friday, 29 January 16
INDONESIAN BENCHMARK COAL PRICE SETTLES DOWN $ 0.31, OR 0.58%, AT $ 53.20 A TON
COALspot.com: Low coal demand and excess supplies sent Indonesian benchmark coal price further down in January 2016. HBA has slumped by 0.58 ...
Friday, 29 January 16
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION OFF 2 PERCENT FROM LAST WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.1 milli ...
Thursday, 28 January 16
COAL REMAINS THE NO.1 FUEL FOR POWER GENERATION - EXXONMOBIL
COALspot.com: Energy demand trends from 2010 to 2040 are expected to vary significantly around the world, as countries move along very different tr ...
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- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
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