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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 10 February 16
OWNERS APPEAR WILLING TO DISPOSE OF TONNAGE THE SOONEST IT HITS THE 10 YEAR MARK - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
COALspot.com: The last two months of 2015 made a case for traditional shipowners to invest in the dry bulk sector, doing so though based purely on ...
Monday, 08 February 16
DRY-BULK SHIPPING DIVING DEEP
COALspot.com: The freight markets continued to fall this past week.
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) of dry-bulk shipping freights, a measure of glo ...
Monday, 08 February 16
DRY BULK: SHIPBROKER SEES BDI MARKET REACHING LOW POINT OF 236 POINTS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The endless pit that is the dry bulk market over the past two months, has been the issue of debate among ship owners, shipbroker and analysts alike ...
Friday, 05 February 16
COAL INDIA EYES COAL MINES IN SOUTH AFRICA - PTI
“Coal India Ltd has plans of acquiring coal mines in South Africa,” an official said. It is looking at acquiring mines in partnership w ...
Friday, 05 February 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT ROSE 4.2% TO 13.6 MMST
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.6 million shor ...
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- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The University of Queensland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
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