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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 12 February 16
DRY BULK MARKET'S FORTUNES STILL TIED WITH CHINA'S ECONOMY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The inevitable slowdown of the Chinese economy was expected to hurt dry bulk shipping, but few expected the blow to be this hard, especially given ...
Friday, 12 February 16
COAL PRICES ARE EXPECTED TO DECLINE 13% IN 2016 TO $50 ATON, ON CONTINUED WEAK DEMAND AND OVERSUPPLY - WORLD BANK
COALspot.com: Thermal coal prices fell 9 percent in the fourth quarter on continued weak demand, high stocks, and surplus production, World Bank sa ...
Friday, 12 February 16
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION OFF 5.4% FROM LAST WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 12.9 million shor ...
Thursday, 11 February 16
GLOBAL NEWBUILDING ORDERBOOK IS SHRINKING ON A DAILY BASIS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
2016 has started right where 2015 left off when it comes to newbuilding ordering activity, i.e. there are slim pickings to be had from shipyards ar ...
Wednesday, 10 February 16
SOUTH AFRICA IS HOPING TO SHIP MORE COAL TO INDIA IN 2016
COALspot.com: South Africa is hoping to boost coal exports to India after shipping a record 75.4 million tonnes of coal in 2015, industry officials ...
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- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- White Energy Company Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The University of Queensland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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