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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 19 February 16
INDONESIAN HBA HITS A NEW LOWS BELOW $51 A TON AS OVERSUPPLY, LOW DEMAND WOES PERSIST
COALspot.com: Low coal demand and excess supplies sent Indonesian benchmark coal price further deep in February 2016. HBA has slumped second time t ...
Friday, 19 February 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION ROSE 2.6% FROM LAST WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.2 million shor ...
Thursday, 18 February 16
INDIA NEEDS INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT ON HIGH EFFICIENCY COAL - WORLD COAL ASSOCIATION
Speaking at a conference in New Delhi today, World Coal Association Chief Executive Benjamin Sporton said the critical role of coal in driving econ ...
Thursday, 18 February 16
CHINA COAL SECTOR - 2015 RESULTS BLEAK, 2016 UNLIKELY TO BE ANY BETTER - FITCH
COALspot.com: China Coal Sector’s Financial Woes to Worsen in 2016.
Fitch Ratings says that the 2015 full-year result previews issued by ...
Thursday, 18 February 16
PANAMAX RATES OUT OF ECSA WERE STILL GAINING A PREMIUM OVER THE REST OF THE MARKET - INTERMODAL
The BDI moved further down last week, fact that hardly took anyone by surprise as the lunar year holidays in Asia on top of the already depre ...
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PTC India Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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