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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 24 February 16
HOW IS THE FUEL MIX FOR U.S. ELECTRICITY GENERATION CHANGING? - EIA
In recent years, there have been changes in the mix of fuels used to generate electricity in the United States. Natural gas and renewable energy so ...
Wednesday, 24 February 16
PRIVATE EQUITY FUNDS LOOKING TO EXIT SHIPPING, MOST NOTABLY DRY BULK, AS OVERORDERING HAS RESULTED IN EXCESS TONNAGE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The injection of more than $13 billion in shipping from various private equity funds over the past few years has resulted in what many feared would ...
Wednesday, 24 February 16
THIRTEEN - NOT ALWAYS AN UNLUCKY NUMBER? - CLARKSONS
Back in early 1999 the price of a 5 year old Panamax bulkcarrier dipped to $13.5m, and ever since analysts have hailed purchase decisions made at t ...
Monday, 22 February 16
4200 GAR COAL INDEX SETTLES AT $27.02, DOWN 0.07% FROM LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin decline 0.17 percent week over week to averaging $38.89 per ton on this past Friday, ...
Monday, 22 February 16
FREIGHT MARKETS PICKED UP SLIGHTLY THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight markets picked up slightly this past week.
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) of dry-bulk shipping freights, a measure of gl ...
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- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The University of Queensland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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