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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 04 February 16
CAPESIZE: WEST AUSTRALIAN TO CHINA HAS BEEN CONCLUDED AT US$ 2.85 PMT AND THE C3 MARKET REMAINS INACTIVE - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
As everyone is getting ready for the Chinese new year, already depressed rates are under further pressure.
According to Fearnleys, ...
Wednesday, 03 February 16
DRY BULK MARKET CONTINUES TO BE UNDER PRESSURE - INTERMODAL
The Dry Bulk market continues to be under pressure, with the BDI remaining in search of even the slightest support, which seems to be delaying more ...
Tuesday, 02 February 16
RECORD EXPORTS THROUGH SOUTH AFRICA'S RICHARDS BAY COAL TERMINAL MADE AT EXPENSE OF SMALLER RIVALS, IHS SAYS
Five percent increase in coal exports through South Africa’s dominant Richards Bay Coal Terminal in 2015 unlikely to accelerate country&rsquo ...
Tuesday, 02 February 16
SETTING ASIDE, STRIKING OUT AND APPEALS TO THE COURT OF APPEAL IN SHIP ARRESTS - RAJAH & TANN ASIA LLP
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The Singapore Court of Appeal once again has had to grapple with ship arrest, setting aside and appeals to the Court unde ...
Monday, 01 February 16
DRY BULK SUFFERS FROM POSEIDON'S POTENT PRONGS - CLARKSONS
It has been a grim start to 2016 for the bulkcarrier market, with the Baltic Dry Index sliding to new record lows on almost every day of the year s ...
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- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
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