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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 13 January 16
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION DECLINED BY 109 MMST IN 2015; COAL EXPORTS DECREASED 21% Y-O-Y
COALspot.com: U.S. coal production declined by 109 million short tons (MMst) (11%) in 2015, the largest decline ever recorded, says EIA.
The 2 ...
Wednesday, 13 January 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE ILIOPOULOS
Going through the second week of 2016 we could easily argue that at this point there are no visible signs of an imminent recovery in the Dry Bulk m ...
Wednesday, 13 January 16
IRON ORE IMPASSE - A FAILED CLAIM FOR CONVERSION - CLYDE & CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In the recent case of the “Bao Yue”, the English High Court found that the bill of lading holder was liable t ...
Tuesday, 12 January 16
5700 GAR COAL FOR DELIVERY WITHIN Q1 FELL 0.91% WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin moved South direction week over week to averaging $39.96 per ton on last Friday, acc ...
Monday, 11 January 16
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 20% MORE COAL IN DECEMBER 2015; AVERAGE SELLING PRICE DECLINE 3.43%
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $1.129 billio ...
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- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
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