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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 29 October 15
Q2' 16 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED US$ 37.40 PER TON; DECLINED 5.56 PER CENT M-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q4 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The Q4 swap declined $ 2.13 (-5.34%) per t ...
Wednesday, 28 October 15
Q2'16 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP SEES FURTHER DECLINES
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q4' 2015 gained week over week and declined month over month.
The Q4 swap was d ...
Wednesday, 28 October 15
BDI INCREASE TOOK PLACE SOLELY ON THE BACK OF CAPESIZE PERFORMANCE, BUT........ - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market closed off the week noting a small improvement which nonetheless failed to lift sentiment, not only because ...
Tuesday, 27 October 15
Q1'16 API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP DECLINE 6 PER CENT M-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q4’ 2015 delivery decreased $2 per ton (4.66%) month over month to US$ 40.93 per ton. The swa ...
Monday, 26 October 15
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 10.5 PER CENT LESS COAL IN SEPTEMBER, COMPARED TO AUGUST LOADING
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port, has shipped $1.161 billi ...
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- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The University of Queensland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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