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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 20 October 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS SINK INTO RED THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q4' 2015 declined week over week and month over month.
The Q4 swap was down US$ ...
Tuesday, 20 October 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED NEGATIVE
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q4’ 2015 delivery decreased $1.23 per ton (2.86%) month over month to US$ 41.80 per ton. The ...
Monday, 19 October 15
RUSSIA MAJOR COAL MINER KRU CUTS 4.5 MLN T/YR "UNPROFITABLE" EURO SALES - JACQUELINE HOLMES
COALspot.com: Kuzbassrazrezugol (KRU), one of Russia's largest producers of high-quality coal, plans to cut its coal exports in 2016 by about 4 ...
Monday, 19 October 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $48.68 PER TON
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down just US cents 55 (1.12 %) per ton month over month.
A commodity ...
Monday, 19 October 15
KOMIPO SEEKS 1.28 MILLION T/Y COAL FOR DEC 2015 - Q2 2016
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender for 1,280,000 Metric Tons (MT) of minimum 4,600 kc ...
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Planning Commission, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
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