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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Thursday, 15 October 15
INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE FALLS FOR SEVEN STRAIGHT MONTH IN OCTOBER
COALspot.com - The Director General of Mineral and Coal of Indonesia once a again revised down Indonesian coal benchmark price this month.
The ...
Thursday, 15 October 15
Q1' 16 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP ADVANCED 2 PER CENT WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q4' 2015 gain week over week and declined month over month.
The Q4 swap was dow ...
Tuesday, 13 October 15
DRY BULK SHIPPING FLEET NET EXPANSION WAS 1.3% DURING THIRD QUARTER, BUT ORDERBOOK REDUCED TO 17% OF THE TRADING FLEET
If the dry bulk market is to rebound on a sustainable level, it needs to limit the tonnage expansion, at least until demand picks up again, as Chin ...
Tuesday, 13 October 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP DECLINED 2 PER CENT MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q4’ 2015 delivery decreased $0.46 per ton (1.08%) month over month to US$ 42.17 per ton. The ...
Monday, 12 October 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS GAIN W-W; SLIGHTLY DOWN M-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down just US cents 3 (0.06 %) per ton month over month.
A commodity ...
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- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
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