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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 28 September 15
CAPESIZE FLEET INCREASES BY JUST 1 VESSEL DURING LAST 12 MONTHS, IN POSITIVE SIGN FOR DRY BULK SHIPPING MARKET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
After a rather tumultuous period, the shipping industry and more particular the dry bulk market has started to adjust to the new realities of globa ...
Monday, 28 September 15
Q1'16 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP ROSE 2.73 PER CENT M-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery moved upward US$ 1.45 (3.04 %) per ton month over month.
A commodity ...
Sunday, 27 September 15
THE PANAMAX INDEX FELL 1.19 PCT WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI closed Friday (25/09/2015) at 943 points, down by 17 points compared to previous Friday closing (18/09/2015). The BDI wa ...
Friday, 25 September 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S. FOR THE WEEK ENDING SEPTEMBER 19 ROSE 2.5% PER CENT W-W
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.8 million shor ...
Wednesday, 23 September 15
CAPESIZE: SPOT RATES HAVE INCREASED MORE THAN 70 PER CENT DURING LAST WEEK
Dry Bulk owners, always look at September as the time that the market “signals” what lies ahead for the remainder of the year. The Chin ...
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- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- MS Steel International - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
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