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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 15 September 15
Q2'16 RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS DIP TO $ 51.10 PER TON
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery 4Q' 2015 declined week over week and month over month.
The 4Q swap was down US$ ...
Tuesday, 15 September 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR 4Q' 2015 DELIVERY CLOSED AT $42.71 PER TON ON 11 SEPT, SGX DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined $0.94 per MT (-2.15%) month over month to US$ 42.71 per mt. The sw ...
Monday, 14 September 15
Q1'16 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP DECLINED $1.80 PMT M-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined just US$ 1.62 (3.21 %) per MT month over month.
A commodity ...
Monday, 14 September 15
MOODY'S LOWERS COMMODITY PRICE ASSUMPTIONS ON MACRO, INDUSTRY FACTORS
COALspot.com: Moody's Investors Service has lowered its base metal price assumptions for 2015-17 as slowing growth in China, lower oil prices, ...
Sunday, 13 September 15
FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOFT NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI decreased further by 6.51 per cent or 57 points since last Friday and closed at 818 on 11 September 2015 while the cape index ...
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- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
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