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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 07 September 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS ROSE 1.1 PER CENT WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined just US$ 1.52 (3 %) per MT month over month.
A commodity sw ...
Sunday, 06 September 15
AUTOMATION AND TECHNOLOGY IS CERTAINLY PART OF THE SOLUTION FOR IMPROVING PERFORMANCE AND EFFICIENCY TO MAKE THE MINE OPERATIONS MORE PROFITABLE, HOWEVER............ - LUKE JALSEVAC
"The Technology and Innovation in Mining 2015" production team at Information Exchange Group interviewed Luke Jalsevac, Director, Busines ...
Sunday, 06 September 15
THE CAPE SIZE INDEX ROSE 10.83 PER CENT WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI, the Baltic exchange's main sea freight index, which tracks rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities, declined o ...
Saturday, 05 September 15
DRY BULK MARKET MAY SUFFER NOW, BUT IS BOUND FOR A RECOVERY THANKS TO A LIMITED FUTURE FLEET GROWTH - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The slow increase of dry bulk tonnage growth this year could turn into a solid indicator of the market’s future prospects. According to a rec ...
Friday, 04 September 15
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION FOR THE W/E AUGUST 29, UP SLIGHTLY; FALL 4.5 PERCENT Y-Y: EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 18.7 million shor ...
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- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Australian Coal Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
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