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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 07 September 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS ROSE 1.1 PER CENT WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined just US$ 1.52 (3 %) per MT month over month.
A commodity sw ...
Sunday, 06 September 15
AUTOMATION AND TECHNOLOGY IS CERTAINLY PART OF THE SOLUTION FOR IMPROVING PERFORMANCE AND EFFICIENCY TO MAKE THE MINE OPERATIONS MORE PROFITABLE, HOWEVER............ - LUKE JALSEVAC
"The Technology and Innovation in Mining 2015" production team at Information Exchange Group interviewed Luke Jalsevac, Director, Busines ...
Sunday, 06 September 15
THE CAPE SIZE INDEX ROSE 10.83 PER CENT WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI, the Baltic exchange's main sea freight index, which tracks rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities, declined o ...
Saturday, 05 September 15
DRY BULK MARKET MAY SUFFER NOW, BUT IS BOUND FOR A RECOVERY THANKS TO A LIMITED FUTURE FLEET GROWTH - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The slow increase of dry bulk tonnage growth this year could turn into a solid indicator of the market’s future prospects. According to a rec ...
Friday, 04 September 15
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION FOR THE W/E AUGUST 29, UP SLIGHTLY; FALL 4.5 PERCENT Y-Y: EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 18.7 million shor ...
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- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Planning Commission, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
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