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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 23 August 15
SHIPPING FREIGHT RATES FALL SHARPLY ON EXCESS SUPPLY AND LOW DEMAND
COALspot.com: The BDI continued to soften and was down 5.78 pct and falls back below 1000 points this week.
The cape Index lost 17.25 per cent ...
Friday, 21 August 15
U.S. YEAR-TO-DATE COAL PRODUCTION VOLUME FALLS 8.7% Y-O-Y
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 18.3 million shor ...
Friday, 21 August 15
GLOBALCOAL TO LAUNCH ONLINE TRADING OF PHYSICAL MET COAL ON 13 OCTOBER
On 13 October 2015, globalCOAL will launch an online platform for the physical procurement and trade of high quality hard coking coal delivered FOB ...
Thursday, 20 August 15
COAL PRICES FALL TO 12-YEAR LOWS AS CHINA, INDIA JOIN DEMAND SLOWDOWN - REUTERS
Coal futures have fallen to 12-year lows, hit by soaring production and a slowdown in global buying, including from India and China which until rec ...
Wednesday, 19 August 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS CONTINUE FLAT TREND LINE THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and flat week over week, this past week.
The 4Q swap was decli ...
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- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
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