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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 07 August 15
U.S. YEAR-TO-DATE COAL PRODUCTION TOTALED 528.1 MMST; DOWN 8.7% Y/Y - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.7 million shor ...
Thursday, 06 August 15
THE RATES FOR CAPES SHOOT UP LAST WEEK; GIVING THIS RECENT RALLY SOME MUCH NEEDED LEGS - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market noted another positive closing last week, entirely supported by Capesize performance, which managed to balance th ...
Thursday, 06 August 15
HARD COAL AND COKE IMPORTS TO GERMANY REACH NEW ALL-TIME HIGH OF 56.2M TONES IN 2014
Demand for German and imported hard coal In 2014, in 2014 fell by almost 8%, or 4.8m TCE, to 56.2m TCE.
According to German Coal Importer ...
Thursday, 06 August 15
SEABORNE WORLD TRADE IN STEAM COAL GROWS BY 3% YOY - GERMAN COAL IMPORTER ASSOCIATION
Global trade with hard coal, at 1,272m tones in 2014, increased by 35m tonnes or 3% in comparison with the previous year.
According to associa ...
Wednesday, 05 August 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
On July 14th, 2015 a historical consensus was reached in Vienna between Iran and the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council, plus Germ ...
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- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The University of Queensland
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Coal Association
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
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