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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 03 August 15
NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS DECLINE FURTHER THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down $ 1.92 per MT (-4.22%) month over month to US$ 43.58 per mt. The swap ...
Monday, 03 August 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS SLIDE THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 1.64 (3.14%) per MT month over month.
A commodity swap ...
Sunday, 02 August 15
CAPESIZE RATES PUSH BDI UPWARD
COALspot.com: The freight market was buoyant this week as BDI rose 4.14 pct to 1131 points. The cape index was also increased 16.50 pct 2209 points ...
Saturday, 01 August 15
DRY BULK MARKET KEEPS ITS MOMENTUM, AS OUTLOOK IMPROVES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Although conditions remain more than challenging, especially from an economic point of view (aka China’s stock worries), the dry bulk market ...
Friday, 31 July 15
CAPE'S PAPER MARKET REMAINS FIRM - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The positive sentiment that the Dry Bulk market has been enjoying as of the previous month, was carried through last week as well, bu ...
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- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The University of Queensland
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
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