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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Sunday, 12 July 15
SHIPYARD NOT LIABLE FOR ENGINE ROOM FIRE CAUSED BY OIL LEAKAGE - BIRCH WINDAHL
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
A Danish vessel owner requested a Danish shipyard to undertake repairs and maintenance works on its vessel. An agreement ...
Saturday, 11 July 15
MAJOR IRANIAN GAS EXPORTS WILL TAKE AT LEAST FIVE YEARS - FITCH
Iran has the long-term potential to become one of the world's top gas producers, thanks to its 34 trillion cubic meters (tcm) of natural gas re ...
Friday, 10 July 15
DRY BULK MARKET KEEPS POSITIVE MOMENTUM - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has kept its positive momentum over the course of the past few days, thanks to Panamax gains. During yesterday’s session ...
Friday, 10 July 15
U.S PRODUCED APPROXIMATELY TOTALED AN ESTIMATED 14.1 MMST WEEK OVER WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totaled an estimated 14.1 million short ...
Thursday, 09 July 15
CPP MARKET : POSITIVE IN THE SHORT TERM - GEORGE VASTARDIS
Despite the traditionally quieter summer period, the clean tanker market has so far experienced healthy activity especially East of Suez. Increased ...
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- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Coal Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
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