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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 23 June 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP HAS REMAINED STEADY OVER THE PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q3' 2015 rose month over month and week over week.
The Q3 swap was up US$ 2.32 ...
Monday, 22 June 15
BORYEONG POWER PLANT TO IMPORT 140K MT OF LCV COAL FOR AUGUST - SEPTEMBER 2015
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender to purchase 140K Metric Tons (MT) of LCV coal for ...
Monday, 22 June 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP: UP MONTH OVER MONTH; DOWN WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 0.30 (0.58%) per MT month over month.
A commodity swap is a ...
Monday, 22 June 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP: UP WEEK OVER WEEK AND MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery up $ 0.54 per MT (1.19%) month over month to US$ 45.87 per mt. The swap was ...
Sunday, 21 June 15
SPOT RATE AVERAGES FOR FREIGHT FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA REMAIN STRONG THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market was quite firm this week compared to last week. The BDI was up 21% week on week and closed at 779 points. The cape ...
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- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
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