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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 17 June 15
PANAMAX RATE AVERAGED $22.82 PMT IN THE FIRST 10 DAYS OF JUNE FOR THE GRAIN ROUTE FROM SANTOS, BRAZIL, TO QINGDAO, CHINA - INTERMODAL
This year, Brazil will be exporting a record 96 million tons of soybean crop and starting in August the country will begin shipping a second corn c ...
Tuesday, 16 June 15
MERS: POTENTIAL CHARTERPARTY IMPLICATIONS - CLYDE & CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
South Korea's current outbreak of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) has been the focus of much international at ...
Tuesday, 16 June 15
Q3 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP PRICE DOWN 50 CENTS OVER PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q3 2015 gains month on month but declined week over week, this past week.
The Q3 swap was clim ...
Tuesday, 16 June 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS: PRICES MOVED UP ON THE WEEK
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q3' 2015 rose month over month and week over week.
The Q3 swap was up US$ 1.70 ...
Monday, 15 June 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP: Q1'16 DELIVERY CLOSED 1.14% LOWER THAN Q4'15 DELIVERY PRICE
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery up $ 1.10 per MT (2.47%) month over month to US$ 45.67 per mt. The swap ...
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The University of Queensland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
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