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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 01 June 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP; Q1'16 CLOSED LOWER COMPARED TO Q3'15
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery gained US$ 0.36 per MT (0.80%) month over month. The swap was closed at US$ ...
Monday, 01 June 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP: GAINED W-W, M-M; Q1'16 CLOSED HIGHER THAN Q3'15
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery up US$ 1.15 (2.26%) per MT month over month.
A commodity swap is a f ...
Sunday, 31 May 15
CAPE AND PANAMAX SEGMENTS SLIDE CONTINUES
COALspot.com: The BDI was up about 0.5 pct week on week and closed at 589 points while the cape index was fell 0.73 pct and closed at 810 po ...
Friday, 29 May 15
DRY BULK MARKET IS THE VICTIM OF A SHIFT IN DEMAND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The fall in dry bulk freight rates is attributed, in large part, to the substantial decrease of China’s thermal coal imports, a major commodi ...
Friday, 29 May 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S. ALMOST FLAT THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.1 million short ...
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
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