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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 26 May 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP; UP WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q3 2015 gains week over week and lost month on month, this past week.
The Q3 swap was declined ...
Monday, 25 May 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP Q1'16 CLOSED LOWER THAN Q3'15 CLOSING
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery gained US$ 0.92 per MT (2.07%) month over month and US$ 0.70 week on week. ...
Monday, 25 May 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP : Q3, Q4'15 & Q1'16 INCREASED M-O-M AND W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery up US$ 1.55 (3.09%) per MT month over month and US$ 0.72 (1.41%) pe ...
Sunday, 24 May 15
INDONESIA TO INDIA PANAMAX CHARTER RATES WERE RATING AT AROUND US$ 5500
COALspot.com: The freight market softened in all segments this past week.
The BDI was dropped 7.57 percent week over week and closed at 586 po ...
Friday, 22 May 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL Q3'15 SWAP FINISHED THE WEEK UP 38 CENTS TO $43.65 PER MT
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q3 2015 gains week over week and lost month on month, past week.
The Q3 swap was declined US$ ...
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Planning Commission, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Economic Council, Georgia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
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