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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 30 April 15
IRON ORE PLAYS EXPECTED TO SHAPE UP MAY DRY BULK SCHEDULE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Market plays in the iron ore commodities’ markets, are expected to carve out the future demand for the shipping industry as well, said Allied ...
Wednesday, 29 April 15
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The figures of China’s slowing down imports of coking coal for the first quarter of the year are coming to confirm what everybody was expecti ...
Wednesday, 29 April 15
SHIPBUILDERS START OFFERING DISCOUNTS FOR DRY BULK NEWBUILDINGS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
It took a while, but now it appears that some shipbuilders are beginning to adjust their price lists to the new grim reality of the dry bulk market ...
Tuesday, 28 April 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP DECLINED M-O-M; INCREASED W-O-W
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q2 2015 gained week over week but declined month on month.
The Q2 swap was declined US$ 0.15 ( ...
Tuesday, 28 April 15
Q2' 15 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP CLOSED 4.18% HIGHER FROM MONTH AGO
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 increased month over month and slightly week over week.
The Q2 swap ha ...
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- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Coal Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
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