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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 19 April 15
THE OCEAN FREIGHT MARKET SHOWED STEADY THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market was fairly steady this week. The BDI was up 2.93% to 597 points week over week. The cape index was also increased ...
Friday, 17 April 15
IHS ENERGY EUROPEAN COAL OUTLOOK CONFERENCE
Attend the IHS Energy European Coal Outlook Conference 19-20 May in Nice, France and learn about timely concerns in today’s coal industry.
...
Friday, 17 April 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S. UP THIS PAST WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totaled an estimated 18.0 million short ...
Thursday, 16 April 15
NEW COMMODITY SUPERHIGHWAY WILL EMERGE IN CHINA, ALTERING ENERGY TRADE FLOWS - WOOD MACKENZIE
Wood Mackenzie says that China’s Go West strategy – encouraging coastal to inland flow of capital and people - will result in the forma ...
Thursday, 16 April 15
SHIPPING DEMAND TO SUFFER AS CHINESE SLOWDOWN CONFIRMED SAYS BIMCO'S CHIEF SHIPPING ANALYST - BIMCO
The Chinese economy grew by 7.0% y-o-y in the first quarter of 2015, according to National Bureau of Statistics in China. This is the weakest overa ...
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- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
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