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Tuesday, 04 August 15
SHIPPING CYCLES - A CHESS GAME YOU DON'T WANT TO LOSE - CLARKSONS
 Ingmar Bergman’s classic movie The Seventh Seal is about a knight who, during the Black Death, challenges Death to a chess match, in the hope that while the game continues he can put off his demise. This grim epic could be seen as a metaphor for the daunting progress through long shipping cycles, as one risk-laden move in the toxic chess game follows another.
August 2007 – The Game Starts
Today’s cycle started eight years ago in 2007. It was an epic year. Capesize earnings averaged over $110,000/day and merchant shipbuilding investment reached a record $229 billion (excluding offshore). But there was good reason to be apprehensive. In August the first signs of the financial crisis hit Europe, as interbank investors grew paranoid about the vulnerability of their counterparties to CDO exposure, bringing Eurodollar trading to a halt. Meanwhile analysts were worried that the Chinese super-boom would peak out after the Olympic Games in 2008. So although dry bulk investors were still making money and ordering ships, the solitary chess game with destiny had already started.
Mounting A Comeback
Seven years later the chess game is still going on. The financial crisis got off to a more dramatic start than anyone anticipated. In 2008 as panic swept through financial markets and trade credit became almost unobtainable, the world economy, including China, came precariously close to meltdown. But fortunately this time the politicians eased through the crisis successfully. China mounted a heroic infrastructure programme which gave bulkers a very decent boom in 2009-10. Following this the market fluctuated, but reached decent levels in late 2011 and again in late 2013.
Not Deadly Or Distressed?
As recessions go so far the game with destiny has gone quite well. Since the end of 2007 Capesize earnings have averaged $32,300/day and the market has soaked up 490m dwt of new bulkers. In 2013, 104m dwt of bulkers were ordered. So someone in the industry believed bulkers would win their chess game.
But in 2015 the game changed. Capesize earnings averaged only $6,212/day in the first half. For the first time signs of real distress are apparent. After 8 years, dry bulk sentiment finally collapsed and bulker orders fell from 16m dwt in January 2014 to 0.05m dwt in June 2015. A helpful step towards market recovery, but it leaves the shipyards with a problem. Over the last 8 years bulkers were a third of shipyard workload (see inset pie chart). Although tankers and container ships are still being ordered, they show no sign of filling the gap left by bulkers.
Dance Macabre
So there you have it. Bulkers have finally made a meaningful move towards better times by cutting investment. But the game isn’t over yet. They still need a strong world economy and continued Chinese import growth. Meanwhile a new chess game with destiny is getting started, this time in the shipyards as they try to plug the bulker gap. Maybe the game’s not over yet. So if you want a nice relaxing summer, our advice is don’t watch The Seventh Seal.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 23 June 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP HAS REMAINED STEADY OVER THE PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q3' 2015 rose month over month and week over week.
The Q3 swap was up US$ 2.32 ...
Monday, 22 June 15
BORYEONG POWER PLANT TO IMPORT 140K MT OF LCV COAL FOR AUGUST - SEPTEMBER 2015
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender to purchase 140K Metric Tons (MT) of LCV coal for ...
Monday, 22 June 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP: UP MONTH OVER MONTH; DOWN WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 0.30 (0.58%) per MT month over month.
A commodity swap is a ...
Monday, 22 June 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP: UP WEEK OVER WEEK AND MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery up $ 0.54 per MT (1.19%) month over month to US$ 45.87 per mt. The swap was ...
Sunday, 21 June 15
SPOT RATE AVERAGES FOR FREIGHT FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA REMAIN STRONG THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market was quite firm this week compared to last week. The BDI was up 21% week on week and closed at 779 points. The cape ...
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Showing 2961 to 2965 news of total 6871 |
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- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Australian Coal Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
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