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Tuesday, 04 August 15
SHIPPING CYCLES - A CHESS GAME YOU DON'T WANT TO LOSE - CLARKSONS
 Ingmar Bergman’s classic movie The Seventh Seal is about a knight who, during the Black Death, challenges Death to a chess match, in the hope that while the game continues he can put off his demise. This grim epic could be seen as a metaphor for the daunting progress through long shipping cycles, as one risk-laden move in the toxic chess game follows another.
August 2007 – The Game Starts
Today’s cycle started eight years ago in 2007. It was an epic year. Capesize earnings averaged over $110,000/day and merchant shipbuilding investment reached a record $229 billion (excluding offshore). But there was good reason to be apprehensive. In August the first signs of the financial crisis hit Europe, as interbank investors grew paranoid about the vulnerability of their counterparties to CDO exposure, bringing Eurodollar trading to a halt. Meanwhile analysts were worried that the Chinese super-boom would peak out after the Olympic Games in 2008. So although dry bulk investors were still making money and ordering ships, the solitary chess game with destiny had already started.
Mounting A Comeback
Seven years later the chess game is still going on. The financial crisis got off to a more dramatic start than anyone anticipated. In 2008 as panic swept through financial markets and trade credit became almost unobtainable, the world economy, including China, came precariously close to meltdown. But fortunately this time the politicians eased through the crisis successfully. China mounted a heroic infrastructure programme which gave bulkers a very decent boom in 2009-10. Following this the market fluctuated, but reached decent levels in late 2011 and again in late 2013.
Not Deadly Or Distressed?
As recessions go so far the game with destiny has gone quite well. Since the end of 2007 Capesize earnings have averaged $32,300/day and the market has soaked up 490m dwt of new bulkers. In 2013, 104m dwt of bulkers were ordered. So someone in the industry believed bulkers would win their chess game.
But in 2015 the game changed. Capesize earnings averaged only $6,212/day in the first half. For the first time signs of real distress are apparent. After 8 years, dry bulk sentiment finally collapsed and bulker orders fell from 16m dwt in January 2014 to 0.05m dwt in June 2015. A helpful step towards market recovery, but it leaves the shipyards with a problem. Over the last 8 years bulkers were a third of shipyard workload (see inset pie chart). Although tankers and container ships are still being ordered, they show no sign of filling the gap left by bulkers.
Dance Macabre
So there you have it. Bulkers have finally made a meaningful move towards better times by cutting investment. But the game isn’t over yet. They still need a strong world economy and continued Chinese import growth. Meanwhile a new chess game with destiny is getting started, this time in the shipyards as they try to plug the bulker gap. Maybe the game’s not over yet. So if you want a nice relaxing summer, our advice is don’t watch The Seventh Seal.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 26 June 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S ROSE 6.0% WEEK OVER WEEK, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.3 million short ...
Thursday, 25 June 15
THE PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 13.31% MORE COAL IN MAY 2015 COMPARED TO APRIL 2015
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port, has shipped $1.18 billio ...
Thursday, 25 June 15
CAPESIZE: PERIOD INTEREST REMAINED STRONG FOR A SECOND WEEK - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: Following those depressive last six months, the BDI closed off on last Friday noting a substantial weekly increase, which pushed the ...
Wednesday, 24 June 15
PANAMAXES: THE OUTLOOK REMAINS NEGATIVE AS DEMAND FOR COAL IS DIMINISHING - YANNIS OLZIERSKY
As we get closer to the end of June, we can safely say that the 1st half of the year is leaving the dry bulk market with a bitter taste that we all ...
Tuesday, 23 June 15
Q3 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP FALL $1.12 IN ONE MONTH
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q3 2015 declined month on month and week over week, this past week.
The Q3 swap was declined $ ...
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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