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Tuesday, 04 August 15
SHIPPING CYCLES - A CHESS GAME YOU DON'T WANT TO LOSE - CLARKSONS
 Ingmar Bergman’s classic movie The Seventh Seal is about a knight who, during the Black Death, challenges Death to a chess match, in the hope that while the game continues he can put off his demise. This grim epic could be seen as a metaphor for the daunting progress through long shipping cycles, as one risk-laden move in the toxic chess game follows another.
August 2007 – The Game Starts
Today’s cycle started eight years ago in 2007. It was an epic year. Capesize earnings averaged over $110,000/day and merchant shipbuilding investment reached a record $229 billion (excluding offshore). But there was good reason to be apprehensive. In August the first signs of the financial crisis hit Europe, as interbank investors grew paranoid about the vulnerability of their counterparties to CDO exposure, bringing Eurodollar trading to a halt. Meanwhile analysts were worried that the Chinese super-boom would peak out after the Olympic Games in 2008. So although dry bulk investors were still making money and ordering ships, the solitary chess game with destiny had already started.
Mounting A Comeback
Seven years later the chess game is still going on. The financial crisis got off to a more dramatic start than anyone anticipated. In 2008 as panic swept through financial markets and trade credit became almost unobtainable, the world economy, including China, came precariously close to meltdown. But fortunately this time the politicians eased through the crisis successfully. China mounted a heroic infrastructure programme which gave bulkers a very decent boom in 2009-10. Following this the market fluctuated, but reached decent levels in late 2011 and again in late 2013.
Not Deadly Or Distressed?
As recessions go so far the game with destiny has gone quite well. Since the end of 2007 Capesize earnings have averaged $32,300/day and the market has soaked up 490m dwt of new bulkers. In 2013, 104m dwt of bulkers were ordered. So someone in the industry believed bulkers would win their chess game.
But in 2015 the game changed. Capesize earnings averaged only $6,212/day in the first half. For the first time signs of real distress are apparent. After 8 years, dry bulk sentiment finally collapsed and bulker orders fell from 16m dwt in January 2014 to 0.05m dwt in June 2015. A helpful step towards market recovery, but it leaves the shipyards with a problem. Over the last 8 years bulkers were a third of shipyard workload (see inset pie chart). Although tankers and container ships are still being ordered, they show no sign of filling the gap left by bulkers.
Dance Macabre
So there you have it. Bulkers have finally made a meaningful move towards better times by cutting investment. But the game isn’t over yet. They still need a strong world economy and continued Chinese import growth. Meanwhile a new chess game with destiny is getting started, this time in the shipyards as they try to plug the bulker gap. Maybe the game’s not over yet. So if you want a nice relaxing summer, our advice is don’t watch The Seventh Seal.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 30 June 15
Q1'16 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED $ 43.45 PER MT
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q3 2015 declined month on month and flat week over week, this past week.
The Q3 swap was decli ...
Monday, 29 June 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS UP SLIGHTLY MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 0.57 (1.11%) per MT month over month.
A commodity swap is a ...
Monday, 29 June 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP SLIGHTLY UP MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery up $ 0.49 per MT (1.08%) month over month to US$ 45.77 per mt. The swap was ...
Saturday, 27 June 15
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS STEADY EARLIER IN THE WEEK; SOFTEN INTO WEEK'S END
COALspot.com: The freight market remain steady earlier in the week, but towards end of the week BDI and BCI shows some signs of softening.
The ...
Friday, 26 June 15
INDONESIA COAL PRODUCTION FALLS BETWEEN JAN-MAY : JG
The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources announced that coal production declined to 166 million tons between January and May, a 19 percent drop ...
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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