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Tuesday, 04 August 15
SHIPPING CYCLES - A CHESS GAME YOU DON'T WANT TO LOSE - CLARKSONS
 Ingmar Bergman’s classic movie The Seventh Seal is about a knight who, during the Black Death, challenges Death to a chess match, in the hope that while the game continues he can put off his demise. This grim epic could be seen as a metaphor for the daunting progress through long shipping cycles, as one risk-laden move in the toxic chess game follows another.
August 2007 – The Game Starts
Today’s cycle started eight years ago in 2007. It was an epic year. Capesize earnings averaged over $110,000/day and merchant shipbuilding investment reached a record $229 billion (excluding offshore). But there was good reason to be apprehensive. In August the first signs of the financial crisis hit Europe, as interbank investors grew paranoid about the vulnerability of their counterparties to CDO exposure, bringing Eurodollar trading to a halt. Meanwhile analysts were worried that the Chinese super-boom would peak out after the Olympic Games in 2008. So although dry bulk investors were still making money and ordering ships, the solitary chess game with destiny had already started.
Mounting A Comeback
Seven years later the chess game is still going on. The financial crisis got off to a more dramatic start than anyone anticipated. In 2008 as panic swept through financial markets and trade credit became almost unobtainable, the world economy, including China, came precariously close to meltdown. But fortunately this time the politicians eased through the crisis successfully. China mounted a heroic infrastructure programme which gave bulkers a very decent boom in 2009-10. Following this the market fluctuated, but reached decent levels in late 2011 and again in late 2013.
Not Deadly Or Distressed?
As recessions go so far the game with destiny has gone quite well. Since the end of 2007 Capesize earnings have averaged $32,300/day and the market has soaked up 490m dwt of new bulkers. In 2013, 104m dwt of bulkers were ordered. So someone in the industry believed bulkers would win their chess game.
But in 2015 the game changed. Capesize earnings averaged only $6,212/day in the first half. For the first time signs of real distress are apparent. After 8 years, dry bulk sentiment finally collapsed and bulker orders fell from 16m dwt in January 2014 to 0.05m dwt in June 2015. A helpful step towards market recovery, but it leaves the shipyards with a problem. Over the last 8 years bulkers were a third of shipyard workload (see inset pie chart). Although tankers and container ships are still being ordered, they show no sign of filling the gap left by bulkers.
Dance Macabre
So there you have it. Bulkers have finally made a meaningful move towards better times by cutting investment. But the game isn’t over yet. They still need a strong world economy and continued Chinese import growth. Meanwhile a new chess game with destiny is getting started, this time in the shipyards as they try to plug the bulker gap. Maybe the game’s not over yet. So if you want a nice relaxing summer, our advice is don’t watch The Seventh Seal.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 06 July 15
KOREA MIDLAND POWER COMPANY LIMITED ISSUED A TENDER FOR 250K MT BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender for 250K Metric Tons (MT) of 5300 kcal/kg NAR coal ...
Monday, 06 July 15
COAL TRADING & RISK MANAGEMENT TRAINING COURSE
Are you ready to invest in yourself and take your trading and risk management strategy to the next level? The Coal Trading & Risk Management Tr ...
Monday, 06 July 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP; DECLINED D-O-D,W-O-W AND M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 0.53 (1.01%) per MT month over month.
A commodity swap ...
Sunday, 05 July 15
THE BALTIC DRY INDEX WAS DOWN 18%; PANAMAX UP 9%
COALspot.com: The freight market was soft during this week. However indices closed slightly firmer end of the week on 3rd July.
The BDI was do ...
Friday, 03 July 15
U.S DELIVERS WEAK FIRST HALF COAL PRODUCTION; 8.8% LOWER Y-O-Y
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.5 million short ...
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Planning Commission, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Coal Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The University of Queensland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
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