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Tuesday, 04 August 15
SHIPPING CYCLES - A CHESS GAME YOU DON'T WANT TO LOSE - CLARKSONS
 Ingmar Bergman’s classic movie The Seventh Seal is about a knight who, during the Black Death, challenges Death to a chess match, in the hope that while the game continues he can put off his demise. This grim epic could be seen as a metaphor for the daunting progress through long shipping cycles, as one risk-laden move in the toxic chess game follows another.
August 2007 – The Game Starts
Today’s cycle started eight years ago in 2007. It was an epic year. Capesize earnings averaged over $110,000/day and merchant shipbuilding investment reached a record $229 billion (excluding offshore). But there was good reason to be apprehensive. In August the first signs of the financial crisis hit Europe, as interbank investors grew paranoid about the vulnerability of their counterparties to CDO exposure, bringing Eurodollar trading to a halt. Meanwhile analysts were worried that the Chinese super-boom would peak out after the Olympic Games in 2008. So although dry bulk investors were still making money and ordering ships, the solitary chess game with destiny had already started.
Mounting A Comeback
Seven years later the chess game is still going on. The financial crisis got off to a more dramatic start than anyone anticipated. In 2008 as panic swept through financial markets and trade credit became almost unobtainable, the world economy, including China, came precariously close to meltdown. But fortunately this time the politicians eased through the crisis successfully. China mounted a heroic infrastructure programme which gave bulkers a very decent boom in 2009-10. Following this the market fluctuated, but reached decent levels in late 2011 and again in late 2013.
Not Deadly Or Distressed?
As recessions go so far the game with destiny has gone quite well. Since the end of 2007 Capesize earnings have averaged $32,300/day and the market has soaked up 490m dwt of new bulkers. In 2013, 104m dwt of bulkers were ordered. So someone in the industry believed bulkers would win their chess game.
But in 2015 the game changed. Capesize earnings averaged only $6,212/day in the first half. For the first time signs of real distress are apparent. After 8 years, dry bulk sentiment finally collapsed and bulker orders fell from 16m dwt in January 2014 to 0.05m dwt in June 2015. A helpful step towards market recovery, but it leaves the shipyards with a problem. Over the last 8 years bulkers were a third of shipyard workload (see inset pie chart). Although tankers and container ships are still being ordered, they show no sign of filling the gap left by bulkers.
Dance Macabre
So there you have it. Bulkers have finally made a meaningful move towards better times by cutting investment. But the game isn’t over yet. They still need a strong world economy and continued Chinese import growth. Meanwhile a new chess game with destiny is getting started, this time in the shipyards as they try to plug the bulker gap. Maybe the game’s not over yet. So if you want a nice relaxing summer, our advice is don’t watch The Seventh Seal.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 09 July 15
LACK OF FRESH BUSINESS IN THE PACIFIC LEFT CAPESIZE RATES MOVING SIDEWAYS - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: Intermodal ship broker says in its weekly report that, a different picture from what we saw the previous week was painted during the ...
Wednesday, 08 July 15
RIO TINTO'S MODERNISED KITIMAT SMELTER BEGINS PRODUCTION; KITIMAT BECOMING ONE OF THE LOWEST COST SMELTERS IN THE WORLD
COALspot.com: Rio Tinto is preparing its first shipments of metal from its world-class Kitimat aluminium smelter in Canada following an extensive m ...
Wednesday, 08 July 15
Q3'15 INDONESIA COAL SWAP DECLINED 3.14% MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q3 2015 declined month on month and week over week, this past week.
The Q3 swap was declined $ ...
Tuesday, 07 July 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS DECLINED WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q3' 2015 declined month over month and week over week.
The Q3 swap was down US$ ...
Tuesday, 07 July 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP ADVANCED MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery up $ 0.28 per MT (-0.61%) month over month to US$ 45.85 per mt. The swap wa ...
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- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Planning Commission, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
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