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Tuesday, 04 August 15
SHIPPING CYCLES - A CHESS GAME YOU DON'T WANT TO LOSE - CLARKSONS
 Ingmar Bergman’s classic movie The Seventh Seal is about a knight who, during the Black Death, challenges Death to a chess match, in the hope that while the game continues he can put off his demise. This grim epic could be seen as a metaphor for the daunting progress through long shipping cycles, as one risk-laden move in the toxic chess game follows another.
August 2007 – The Game Starts
Today’s cycle started eight years ago in 2007. It was an epic year. Capesize earnings averaged over $110,000/day and merchant shipbuilding investment reached a record $229 billion (excluding offshore). But there was good reason to be apprehensive. In August the first signs of the financial crisis hit Europe, as interbank investors grew paranoid about the vulnerability of their counterparties to CDO exposure, bringing Eurodollar trading to a halt. Meanwhile analysts were worried that the Chinese super-boom would peak out after the Olympic Games in 2008. So although dry bulk investors were still making money and ordering ships, the solitary chess game with destiny had already started.
Mounting A Comeback
Seven years later the chess game is still going on. The financial crisis got off to a more dramatic start than anyone anticipated. In 2008 as panic swept through financial markets and trade credit became almost unobtainable, the world economy, including China, came precariously close to meltdown. But fortunately this time the politicians eased through the crisis successfully. China mounted a heroic infrastructure programme which gave bulkers a very decent boom in 2009-10. Following this the market fluctuated, but reached decent levels in late 2011 and again in late 2013.
Not Deadly Or Distressed?
As recessions go so far the game with destiny has gone quite well. Since the end of 2007 Capesize earnings have averaged $32,300/day and the market has soaked up 490m dwt of new bulkers. In 2013, 104m dwt of bulkers were ordered. So someone in the industry believed bulkers would win their chess game.
But in 2015 the game changed. Capesize earnings averaged only $6,212/day in the first half. For the first time signs of real distress are apparent. After 8 years, dry bulk sentiment finally collapsed and bulker orders fell from 16m dwt in January 2014 to 0.05m dwt in June 2015. A helpful step towards market recovery, but it leaves the shipyards with a problem. Over the last 8 years bulkers were a third of shipyard workload (see inset pie chart). Although tankers and container ships are still being ordered, they show no sign of filling the gap left by bulkers.
Dance Macabre
So there you have it. Bulkers have finally made a meaningful move towards better times by cutting investment. But the game isn’t over yet. They still need a strong world economy and continued Chinese import growth. Meanwhile a new chess game with destiny is getting started, this time in the shipyards as they try to plug the bulker gap. Maybe the game’s not over yet. So if you want a nice relaxing summer, our advice is don’t watch The Seventh Seal.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 15 July 15
ANY FUTURE IRAN OIL DEAL WILL BOOST SUPPLY FUNDAMENTALS WITH TANKER OWNERS HOPING FROM TEHRAN TO QUICKLY BOOST ITS PRODUCTION
With the Greek “Euro-drama” apparently over, at least for now, Iran’s oil deal still remains elusive, with any potential agreemen ...
Tuesday, 14 July 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS MAINTAIN OVERALL NEGATIVE TONE THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery down $ 1.02 per MT (-2.23%) month over month to US$ 44.68 per mt. The swap ...
Tuesday, 14 July 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS DECLINE THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 1.47 (2.82%) per MT month over month.
A commodity swap ...
Monday, 13 July 15
THERMAL COAL IMPORTS SOAR 23 PER CENT TO 24.08 MILLION TONNES AT 12 MAJOR INDIAN PORTS
Import of thermal coal jumped 23 per cent to 24.08 million tonnes at 12 major ports in the first quarter of the fiscal, even as the government cont ...
Monday, 13 July 15
THE DRY BULK MARKET CLOSED ON A POSITIVE TONE THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Despite Greece crisis and turmoil in the stock market across the world , the freight market overall was firm and up in all segments t ...
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Showing 2926 to 2930 news of total 6871 |
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Australian Coal Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
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