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Tuesday, 04 August 15
SHIPPING CYCLES - A CHESS GAME YOU DON'T WANT TO LOSE - CLARKSONS
 Ingmar Bergman’s classic movie The Seventh Seal is about a knight who, during the Black Death, challenges Death to a chess match, in the hope that while the game continues he can put off his demise. This grim epic could be seen as a metaphor for the daunting progress through long shipping cycles, as one risk-laden move in the toxic chess game follows another.
August 2007 – The Game Starts
Today’s cycle started eight years ago in 2007. It was an epic year. Capesize earnings averaged over $110,000/day and merchant shipbuilding investment reached a record $229 billion (excluding offshore). But there was good reason to be apprehensive. In August the first signs of the financial crisis hit Europe, as interbank investors grew paranoid about the vulnerability of their counterparties to CDO exposure, bringing Eurodollar trading to a halt. Meanwhile analysts were worried that the Chinese super-boom would peak out after the Olympic Games in 2008. So although dry bulk investors were still making money and ordering ships, the solitary chess game with destiny had already started.
Mounting A Comeback
Seven years later the chess game is still going on. The financial crisis got off to a more dramatic start than anyone anticipated. In 2008 as panic swept through financial markets and trade credit became almost unobtainable, the world economy, including China, came precariously close to meltdown. But fortunately this time the politicians eased through the crisis successfully. China mounted a heroic infrastructure programme which gave bulkers a very decent boom in 2009-10. Following this the market fluctuated, but reached decent levels in late 2011 and again in late 2013.
Not Deadly Or Distressed?
As recessions go so far the game with destiny has gone quite well. Since the end of 2007 Capesize earnings have averaged $32,300/day and the market has soaked up 490m dwt of new bulkers. In 2013, 104m dwt of bulkers were ordered. So someone in the industry believed bulkers would win their chess game.
But in 2015 the game changed. Capesize earnings averaged only $6,212/day in the first half. For the first time signs of real distress are apparent. After 8 years, dry bulk sentiment finally collapsed and bulker orders fell from 16m dwt in January 2014 to 0.05m dwt in June 2015. A helpful step towards market recovery, but it leaves the shipyards with a problem. Over the last 8 years bulkers were a third of shipyard workload (see inset pie chart). Although tankers and container ships are still being ordered, they show no sign of filling the gap left by bulkers.
Dance Macabre
So there you have it. Bulkers have finally made a meaningful move towards better times by cutting investment. But the game isn’t over yet. They still need a strong world economy and continued Chinese import growth. Meanwhile a new chess game with destiny is getting started, this time in the shipyards as they try to plug the bulker gap. Maybe the game’s not over yet. So if you want a nice relaxing summer, our advice is don’t watch The Seventh Seal.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 16 July 15
INDONESIA'S HBA HITS ALL-TIME LOW OF $59.16 PER METRIC TON IN JULY 2015
COALspot.com - The Director General of Mineral and Coal of Indonesia revised down Indonesian coal benchmark price once again to US$ 59.16 pe ...
Thursday, 16 July 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS DECLINE W-O-W, M-O-M
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q3' 2015 declined month over month and week over week.
The Q3 swap was down US$ ...
Wednesday, 15 July 15
WEEKLY SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The last few weeks have been rather strenuous for Greece and China, each for their own reasons, affecting most markets around the world. In Greece ...
Wednesday, 15 July 15
IRAN OIL RECOVERY TO TAKE YEARS, BUT COULD START IN 2016 - FITCH
Iranian crude oil production is likely to increase in 2016 but will take a number of years to reach its previous peak, Fitch Ratings says.
The ...
Wednesday, 15 July 15
SAS TO BUILD 108 KM ROAD FOR COAL IN JAMBI, SAYS JAKARTA POST
Jambi Governor Hasan Basri Agus said on Sunday that mining company PT Sinar Anugerah Sukses (SAS) would develop a 108-kilometer road with a width o ...
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
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