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Tuesday, 04 August 15
SHIPPING CYCLES - A CHESS GAME YOU DON'T WANT TO LOSE - CLARKSONS
 Ingmar Bergman’s classic movie The Seventh Seal is about a knight who, during the Black Death, challenges Death to a chess match, in the hope that while the game continues he can put off his demise. This grim epic could be seen as a metaphor for the daunting progress through long shipping cycles, as one risk-laden move in the toxic chess game follows another.
August 2007 – The Game Starts
Today’s cycle started eight years ago in 2007. It was an epic year. Capesize earnings averaged over $110,000/day and merchant shipbuilding investment reached a record $229 billion (excluding offshore). But there was good reason to be apprehensive. In August the first signs of the financial crisis hit Europe, as interbank investors grew paranoid about the vulnerability of their counterparties to CDO exposure, bringing Eurodollar trading to a halt. Meanwhile analysts were worried that the Chinese super-boom would peak out after the Olympic Games in 2008. So although dry bulk investors were still making money and ordering ships, the solitary chess game with destiny had already started.
Mounting A Comeback
Seven years later the chess game is still going on. The financial crisis got off to a more dramatic start than anyone anticipated. In 2008 as panic swept through financial markets and trade credit became almost unobtainable, the world economy, including China, came precariously close to meltdown. But fortunately this time the politicians eased through the crisis successfully. China mounted a heroic infrastructure programme which gave bulkers a very decent boom in 2009-10. Following this the market fluctuated, but reached decent levels in late 2011 and again in late 2013.
Not Deadly Or Distressed?
As recessions go so far the game with destiny has gone quite well. Since the end of 2007 Capesize earnings have averaged $32,300/day and the market has soaked up 490m dwt of new bulkers. In 2013, 104m dwt of bulkers were ordered. So someone in the industry believed bulkers would win their chess game.
But in 2015 the game changed. Capesize earnings averaged only $6,212/day in the first half. For the first time signs of real distress are apparent. After 8 years, dry bulk sentiment finally collapsed and bulker orders fell from 16m dwt in January 2014 to 0.05m dwt in June 2015. A helpful step towards market recovery, but it leaves the shipyards with a problem. Over the last 8 years bulkers were a third of shipyard workload (see inset pie chart). Although tankers and container ships are still being ordered, they show no sign of filling the gap left by bulkers.
Dance Macabre
So there you have it. Bulkers have finally made a meaningful move towards better times by cutting investment. But the game isn’t over yet. They still need a strong world economy and continued Chinese import growth. Meanwhile a new chess game with destiny is getting started, this time in the shipyards as they try to plug the bulker gap. Maybe the game’s not over yet. So if you want a nice relaxing summer, our advice is don’t watch The Seventh Seal.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 21 July 15
CHINA'S ENERGY COMMODITY IMPORTS DIVERGING - RICHARD SCOTT | HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Energy commodity imports into China have grown enormously over the past decade, boosting global demand for shipping capacity. But a dramatic change ...
Tuesday, 21 July 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS EXTEND LOSS
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q3 2015 declined month on month and week over week, this past week. The swaps was lost 0.70%.
...
Tuesday, 21 July 15
Q4'15 FOB RBCT COAL SWAP DECLINES NEARLY 3.13 PER CENT MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q3' 2015 declined month over month and week over week.
The Q3 swap was down US$ ...
Monday, 20 July 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP SEE FURTHER DECLINES
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery down $ 1.32 per MT (-2.89%) month over month to US$ 44.43 per mt. The swap ...
Monday, 20 July 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS GAIN WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 1.18 (2.27%) per MT month over month.
A commodity swap ...
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Showing 2911 to 2915 news of total 6871 |
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- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Planning Commission, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
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