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Tuesday, 04 August 15
SHIPPING CYCLES - A CHESS GAME YOU DON'T WANT TO LOSE - CLARKSONS
 Ingmar Bergman’s classic movie The Seventh Seal is about a knight who, during the Black Death, challenges Death to a chess match, in the hope that while the game continues he can put off his demise. This grim epic could be seen as a metaphor for the daunting progress through long shipping cycles, as one risk-laden move in the toxic chess game follows another.
August 2007 – The Game Starts
Today’s cycle started eight years ago in 2007. It was an epic year. Capesize earnings averaged over $110,000/day and merchant shipbuilding investment reached a record $229 billion (excluding offshore). But there was good reason to be apprehensive. In August the first signs of the financial crisis hit Europe, as interbank investors grew paranoid about the vulnerability of their counterparties to CDO exposure, bringing Eurodollar trading to a halt. Meanwhile analysts were worried that the Chinese super-boom would peak out after the Olympic Games in 2008. So although dry bulk investors were still making money and ordering ships, the solitary chess game with destiny had already started.
Mounting A Comeback
Seven years later the chess game is still going on. The financial crisis got off to a more dramatic start than anyone anticipated. In 2008 as panic swept through financial markets and trade credit became almost unobtainable, the world economy, including China, came precariously close to meltdown. But fortunately this time the politicians eased through the crisis successfully. China mounted a heroic infrastructure programme which gave bulkers a very decent boom in 2009-10. Following this the market fluctuated, but reached decent levels in late 2011 and again in late 2013.
Not Deadly Or Distressed?
As recessions go so far the game with destiny has gone quite well. Since the end of 2007 Capesize earnings have averaged $32,300/day and the market has soaked up 490m dwt of new bulkers. In 2013, 104m dwt of bulkers were ordered. So someone in the industry believed bulkers would win their chess game.
But in 2015 the game changed. Capesize earnings averaged only $6,212/day in the first half. For the first time signs of real distress are apparent. After 8 years, dry bulk sentiment finally collapsed and bulker orders fell from 16m dwt in January 2014 to 0.05m dwt in June 2015. A helpful step towards market recovery, but it leaves the shipyards with a problem. Over the last 8 years bulkers were a third of shipyard workload (see inset pie chart). Although tankers and container ships are still being ordered, they show no sign of filling the gap left by bulkers.
Dance Macabre
So there you have it. Bulkers have finally made a meaningful move towards better times by cutting investment. But the game isn’t over yet. They still need a strong world economy and continued Chinese import growth. Meanwhile a new chess game with destiny is getting started, this time in the shipyards as they try to plug the bulker gap. Maybe the game’s not over yet. So if you want a nice relaxing summer, our advice is don’t watch The Seventh Seal.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 28 July 15
INDONESIA DELAYS PLAN TO RAISE COAL ROYALTIES AMID PLUNGING PRICE - JP
The government will postpone a plan to increase royalty payments from coal miners as they are already burdened with the commodity’s plunging ...
Tuesday, 28 July 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP LOST M-M AND GAINED W-W
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery down $ 1.15 per MT (-2.51%) month over month to US$ 44.62 per mt. The swap ...
Monday, 27 July 15
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR TOTAL 545,000 MT OF COAL FOR BORYEONG POWER PLANT
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender to purchase total 545,000 Metric Tons (MT) of coal ...
Monday, 27 July 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP WEAK M/M; FIRM W/W
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 0.92 (1.77%) per MT month over month.
A commodity swap ...
Sunday, 26 July 15
INDO-INDIA OCEAN COAL FREIGHT RATES REMAIN STEADY
COALspot.com: The freight market continued lost steam towards end of the week and all indices were showing downward trend.
The BDI was up by 3 ...
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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