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Tuesday, 04 August 15
SHIPPING CYCLES - A CHESS GAME YOU DON'T WANT TO LOSE - CLARKSONS
 Ingmar Bergman’s classic movie The Seventh Seal is about a knight who, during the Black Death, challenges Death to a chess match, in the hope that while the game continues he can put off his demise. This grim epic could be seen as a metaphor for the daunting progress through long shipping cycles, as one risk-laden move in the toxic chess game follows another.
August 2007 – The Game Starts
Today’s cycle started eight years ago in 2007. It was an epic year. Capesize earnings averaged over $110,000/day and merchant shipbuilding investment reached a record $229 billion (excluding offshore). But there was good reason to be apprehensive. In August the first signs of the financial crisis hit Europe, as interbank investors grew paranoid about the vulnerability of their counterparties to CDO exposure, bringing Eurodollar trading to a halt. Meanwhile analysts were worried that the Chinese super-boom would peak out after the Olympic Games in 2008. So although dry bulk investors were still making money and ordering ships, the solitary chess game with destiny had already started.
Mounting A Comeback
Seven years later the chess game is still going on. The financial crisis got off to a more dramatic start than anyone anticipated. In 2008 as panic swept through financial markets and trade credit became almost unobtainable, the world economy, including China, came precariously close to meltdown. But fortunately this time the politicians eased through the crisis successfully. China mounted a heroic infrastructure programme which gave bulkers a very decent boom in 2009-10. Following this the market fluctuated, but reached decent levels in late 2011 and again in late 2013.
Not Deadly Or Distressed?
As recessions go so far the game with destiny has gone quite well. Since the end of 2007 Capesize earnings have averaged $32,300/day and the market has soaked up 490m dwt of new bulkers. In 2013, 104m dwt of bulkers were ordered. So someone in the industry believed bulkers would win their chess game.
But in 2015 the game changed. Capesize earnings averaged only $6,212/day in the first half. For the first time signs of real distress are apparent. After 8 years, dry bulk sentiment finally collapsed and bulker orders fell from 16m dwt in January 2014 to 0.05m dwt in June 2015. A helpful step towards market recovery, but it leaves the shipyards with a problem. Over the last 8 years bulkers were a third of shipyard workload (see inset pie chart). Although tankers and container ships are still being ordered, they show no sign of filling the gap left by bulkers.
Dance Macabre
So there you have it. Bulkers have finally made a meaningful move towards better times by cutting investment. But the game isn’t over yet. They still need a strong world economy and continued Chinese import growth. Meanwhile a new chess game with destiny is getting started, this time in the shipyards as they try to plug the bulker gap. Maybe the game’s not over yet. So if you want a nice relaxing summer, our advice is don’t watch The Seventh Seal.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 03 August 15
NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS DECLINE FURTHER THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down $ 1.92 per MT (-4.22%) month over month to US$ 43.58 per mt. The swap ...
Monday, 03 August 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS SLIDE THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 1.64 (3.14%) per MT month over month.
A commodity swap ...
Sunday, 02 August 15
CAPESIZE RATES PUSH BDI UPWARD
COALspot.com: The freight market was buoyant this week as BDI rose 4.14 pct to 1131 points. The cape index was also increased 16.50 pct 2209 points ...
Saturday, 01 August 15
DRY BULK MARKET KEEPS ITS MOMENTUM, AS OUTLOOK IMPROVES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Although conditions remain more than challenging, especially from an economic point of view (aka China’s stock worries), the dry bulk market ...
Friday, 31 July 15
CAPE'S PAPER MARKET REMAINS FIRM - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The positive sentiment that the Dry Bulk market has been enjoying as of the previous month, was carried through last week as well, bu ...
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
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