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Tuesday, 04 August 15
SHIPPING CYCLES - A CHESS GAME YOU DON'T WANT TO LOSE - CLARKSONS
 Ingmar Bergman’s classic movie The Seventh Seal is about a knight who, during the Black Death, challenges Death to a chess match, in the hope that while the game continues he can put off his demise. This grim epic could be seen as a metaphor for the daunting progress through long shipping cycles, as one risk-laden move in the toxic chess game follows another.
August 2007 – The Game Starts
Today’s cycle started eight years ago in 2007. It was an epic year. Capesize earnings averaged over $110,000/day and merchant shipbuilding investment reached a record $229 billion (excluding offshore). But there was good reason to be apprehensive. In August the first signs of the financial crisis hit Europe, as interbank investors grew paranoid about the vulnerability of their counterparties to CDO exposure, bringing Eurodollar trading to a halt. Meanwhile analysts were worried that the Chinese super-boom would peak out after the Olympic Games in 2008. So although dry bulk investors were still making money and ordering ships, the solitary chess game with destiny had already started.
Mounting A Comeback
Seven years later the chess game is still going on. The financial crisis got off to a more dramatic start than anyone anticipated. In 2008 as panic swept through financial markets and trade credit became almost unobtainable, the world economy, including China, came precariously close to meltdown. But fortunately this time the politicians eased through the crisis successfully. China mounted a heroic infrastructure programme which gave bulkers a very decent boom in 2009-10. Following this the market fluctuated, but reached decent levels in late 2011 and again in late 2013.
Not Deadly Or Distressed?
As recessions go so far the game with destiny has gone quite well. Since the end of 2007 Capesize earnings have averaged $32,300/day and the market has soaked up 490m dwt of new bulkers. In 2013, 104m dwt of bulkers were ordered. So someone in the industry believed bulkers would win their chess game.
But in 2015 the game changed. Capesize earnings averaged only $6,212/day in the first half. For the first time signs of real distress are apparent. After 8 years, dry bulk sentiment finally collapsed and bulker orders fell from 16m dwt in January 2014 to 0.05m dwt in June 2015. A helpful step towards market recovery, but it leaves the shipyards with a problem. Over the last 8 years bulkers were a third of shipyard workload (see inset pie chart). Although tankers and container ships are still being ordered, they show no sign of filling the gap left by bulkers.
Dance Macabre
So there you have it. Bulkers have finally made a meaningful move towards better times by cutting investment. But the game isn’t over yet. They still need a strong world economy and continued Chinese import growth. Meanwhile a new chess game with destiny is getting started, this time in the shipyards as they try to plug the bulker gap. Maybe the game’s not over yet. So if you want a nice relaxing summer, our advice is don’t watch The Seventh Seal.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 07 August 15
COAL PRICE DEVELOPMENTS CAN ONLY BE DESCRIBED, SUCCINCTLY AS "OVERSUPPLY MEETS SUBDUED DEMAND" - VDKI
Coal Outlook 2015 – International
Regarding the outlook for global coal trading, two questions arise: firstly, “ whether the years of ...
Friday, 07 August 15
U.S. YEAR-TO-DATE COAL PRODUCTION TOTALED 528.1 MMST; DOWN 8.7% Y/Y - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.7 million shor ...
Thursday, 06 August 15
THE RATES FOR CAPES SHOOT UP LAST WEEK; GIVING THIS RECENT RALLY SOME MUCH NEEDED LEGS - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market noted another positive closing last week, entirely supported by Capesize performance, which managed to balance th ...
Thursday, 06 August 15
HARD COAL AND COKE IMPORTS TO GERMANY REACH NEW ALL-TIME HIGH OF 56.2M TONES IN 2014
Demand for German and imported hard coal In 2014, in 2014 fell by almost 8%, or 4.8m TCE, to 56.2m TCE.
According to German Coal Importer ...
Thursday, 06 August 15
SEABORNE WORLD TRADE IN STEAM COAL GROWS BY 3% YOY - GERMAN COAL IMPORTER ASSOCIATION
Global trade with hard coal, at 1,272m tones in 2014, increased by 35m tonnes or 3% in comparison with the previous year.
According to associa ...
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- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
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- VISA Power Limited - India
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- Planning Commission, India
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- Australian Coal Association
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
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- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
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- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
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- MS Steel International - UAE
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- White Energy Company Limited
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- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
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- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
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- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
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