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Tuesday, 04 August 15
SHIPPING CYCLES - A CHESS GAME YOU DON'T WANT TO LOSE - CLARKSONS
 Ingmar Bergman’s classic movie The Seventh Seal is about a knight who, during the Black Death, challenges Death to a chess match, in the hope that while the game continues he can put off his demise. This grim epic could be seen as a metaphor for the daunting progress through long shipping cycles, as one risk-laden move in the toxic chess game follows another.
August 2007 – The Game Starts
Today’s cycle started eight years ago in 2007. It was an epic year. Capesize earnings averaged over $110,000/day and merchant shipbuilding investment reached a record $229 billion (excluding offshore). But there was good reason to be apprehensive. In August the first signs of the financial crisis hit Europe, as interbank investors grew paranoid about the vulnerability of their counterparties to CDO exposure, bringing Eurodollar trading to a halt. Meanwhile analysts were worried that the Chinese super-boom would peak out after the Olympic Games in 2008. So although dry bulk investors were still making money and ordering ships, the solitary chess game with destiny had already started.
Mounting A Comeback
Seven years later the chess game is still going on. The financial crisis got off to a more dramatic start than anyone anticipated. In 2008 as panic swept through financial markets and trade credit became almost unobtainable, the world economy, including China, came precariously close to meltdown. But fortunately this time the politicians eased through the crisis successfully. China mounted a heroic infrastructure programme which gave bulkers a very decent boom in 2009-10. Following this the market fluctuated, but reached decent levels in late 2011 and again in late 2013.
Not Deadly Or Distressed?
As recessions go so far the game with destiny has gone quite well. Since the end of 2007 Capesize earnings have averaged $32,300/day and the market has soaked up 490m dwt of new bulkers. In 2013, 104m dwt of bulkers were ordered. So someone in the industry believed bulkers would win their chess game.
But in 2015 the game changed. Capesize earnings averaged only $6,212/day in the first half. For the first time signs of real distress are apparent. After 8 years, dry bulk sentiment finally collapsed and bulker orders fell from 16m dwt in January 2014 to 0.05m dwt in June 2015. A helpful step towards market recovery, but it leaves the shipyards with a problem. Over the last 8 years bulkers were a third of shipyard workload (see inset pie chart). Although tankers and container ships are still being ordered, they show no sign of filling the gap left by bulkers.
Dance Macabre
So there you have it. Bulkers have finally made a meaningful move towards better times by cutting investment. But the game isn’t over yet. They still need a strong world economy and continued Chinese import growth. Meanwhile a new chess game with destiny is getting started, this time in the shipyards as they try to plug the bulker gap. Maybe the game’s not over yet. So if you want a nice relaxing summer, our advice is don’t watch The Seventh Seal.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 12 August 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FLAT WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down $ 0.98 per MT (-2.20%) month over month to US$ 43.65 per mt. The swap ...
Tuesday, 11 August 15
GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF CRUDE STEEL REACHED A NEW ALL-TIME HIGH OF 1,661M TONNES IN 2014 - VDKI
COALpot.com: Global production of crude steel reached a new all-time high of 1,661m tonnes in 2014, said German Coal Importer Association, in its l ...
Tuesday, 11 August 15
2016 CFR S.CHINA COAL SWAPS CLOSED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN 4Q 2015 CLOSING PRICES; BUT NOT SIGNIFICANT
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined just US cents 10 (0.20%) per MT month over month.
A commodi ...
Monday, 10 August 15
SOUTH KOREAN UTILITY KOMIPO INVITES BITUMINOUS COAL BIDS FOR BORYEONG POWER PLANT
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender for 560,000 Metric Tons (MT) of 4,600kcal/kg NAR c ...
Sunday, 09 August 15
THE PANAMAX MARKET HAS REMAINED WEAK THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market continued to be buoyant with cape index pushing the BDI.
The BDI was up 10.49% and closed at 1200 points on 7 ...
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- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Australian Coal Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
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