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Tuesday, 04 August 15
SHIPPING CYCLES - A CHESS GAME YOU DON'T WANT TO LOSE - CLARKSONS
 Ingmar Bergman’s classic movie The Seventh Seal is about a knight who, during the Black Death, challenges Death to a chess match, in the hope that while the game continues he can put off his demise. This grim epic could be seen as a metaphor for the daunting progress through long shipping cycles, as one risk-laden move in the toxic chess game follows another.
August 2007 – The Game Starts
Today’s cycle started eight years ago in 2007. It was an epic year. Capesize earnings averaged over $110,000/day and merchant shipbuilding investment reached a record $229 billion (excluding offshore). But there was good reason to be apprehensive. In August the first signs of the financial crisis hit Europe, as interbank investors grew paranoid about the vulnerability of their counterparties to CDO exposure, bringing Eurodollar trading to a halt. Meanwhile analysts were worried that the Chinese super-boom would peak out after the Olympic Games in 2008. So although dry bulk investors were still making money and ordering ships, the solitary chess game with destiny had already started.
Mounting A Comeback
Seven years later the chess game is still going on. The financial crisis got off to a more dramatic start than anyone anticipated. In 2008 as panic swept through financial markets and trade credit became almost unobtainable, the world economy, including China, came precariously close to meltdown. But fortunately this time the politicians eased through the crisis successfully. China mounted a heroic infrastructure programme which gave bulkers a very decent boom in 2009-10. Following this the market fluctuated, but reached decent levels in late 2011 and again in late 2013.
Not Deadly Or Distressed?
As recessions go so far the game with destiny has gone quite well. Since the end of 2007 Capesize earnings have averaged $32,300/day and the market has soaked up 490m dwt of new bulkers. In 2013, 104m dwt of bulkers were ordered. So someone in the industry believed bulkers would win their chess game.
But in 2015 the game changed. Capesize earnings averaged only $6,212/day in the first half. For the first time signs of real distress are apparent. After 8 years, dry bulk sentiment finally collapsed and bulker orders fell from 16m dwt in January 2014 to 0.05m dwt in June 2015. A helpful step towards market recovery, but it leaves the shipyards with a problem. Over the last 8 years bulkers were a third of shipyard workload (see inset pie chart). Although tankers and container ships are still being ordered, they show no sign of filling the gap left by bulkers.
Dance Macabre
So there you have it. Bulkers have finally made a meaningful move towards better times by cutting investment. But the game isn’t over yet. They still need a strong world economy and continued Chinese import growth. Meanwhile a new chess game with destiny is getting started, this time in the shipyards as they try to plug the bulker gap. Maybe the game’s not over yet. So if you want a nice relaxing summer, our advice is don’t watch The Seventh Seal.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 05 August 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
On July 14th, 2015 a historical consensus was reached in Vienna between Iran and the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council, plus Germ ...
Wednesday, 05 August 15
COAL CONSUMPTION POSTED THE STRONGEST GROWTH AMONG THE FOSSIL ENERGY SOURCES IN 2014 - VDKI
Coal 2014: again the world's fastest-growing primary energy source and an indispensable asset for the success of the energy turnaround.
Ac ...
Wednesday, 05 August 15
FOB INDONESIA THERMAL COAL SWAPS FALL
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and week over week, this past week.
The 4Q swap was declined $ ...
Wednesday, 05 August 15
DRY BULKER PRICES START TO FIRM UP AS MARKET SENTIMENT IMPROVES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Market pessimism in the dry bulk industry, a trend which had established itself over the course of the year, has started to fade away over the past ...
Tuesday, 04 August 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS CONTINUE TO FALL DUE TO SLIDING DEMAND
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery 4Q' 2015 declined month over month and week over week.
The 4Q swap was down US$ ...
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- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The University of Queensland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
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