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Tuesday, 04 August 15
SHIPPING CYCLES - A CHESS GAME YOU DON'T WANT TO LOSE - CLARKSONS
 Ingmar Bergman’s classic movie The Seventh Seal is about a knight who, during the Black Death, challenges Death to a chess match, in the hope that while the game continues he can put off his demise. This grim epic could be seen as a metaphor for the daunting progress through long shipping cycles, as one risk-laden move in the toxic chess game follows another.
August 2007 – The Game Starts
Today’s cycle started eight years ago in 2007. It was an epic year. Capesize earnings averaged over $110,000/day and merchant shipbuilding investment reached a record $229 billion (excluding offshore). But there was good reason to be apprehensive. In August the first signs of the financial crisis hit Europe, as interbank investors grew paranoid about the vulnerability of their counterparties to CDO exposure, bringing Eurodollar trading to a halt. Meanwhile analysts were worried that the Chinese super-boom would peak out after the Olympic Games in 2008. So although dry bulk investors were still making money and ordering ships, the solitary chess game with destiny had already started.
Mounting A Comeback
Seven years later the chess game is still going on. The financial crisis got off to a more dramatic start than anyone anticipated. In 2008 as panic swept through financial markets and trade credit became almost unobtainable, the world economy, including China, came precariously close to meltdown. But fortunately this time the politicians eased through the crisis successfully. China mounted a heroic infrastructure programme which gave bulkers a very decent boom in 2009-10. Following this the market fluctuated, but reached decent levels in late 2011 and again in late 2013.
Not Deadly Or Distressed?
As recessions go so far the game with destiny has gone quite well. Since the end of 2007 Capesize earnings have averaged $32,300/day and the market has soaked up 490m dwt of new bulkers. In 2013, 104m dwt of bulkers were ordered. So someone in the industry believed bulkers would win their chess game.
But in 2015 the game changed. Capesize earnings averaged only $6,212/day in the first half. For the first time signs of real distress are apparent. After 8 years, dry bulk sentiment finally collapsed and bulker orders fell from 16m dwt in January 2014 to 0.05m dwt in June 2015. A helpful step towards market recovery, but it leaves the shipyards with a problem. Over the last 8 years bulkers were a third of shipyard workload (see inset pie chart). Although tankers and container ships are still being ordered, they show no sign of filling the gap left by bulkers.
Dance Macabre
So there you have it. Bulkers have finally made a meaningful move towards better times by cutting investment. But the game isn’t over yet. They still need a strong world economy and continued Chinese import growth. Meanwhile a new chess game with destiny is getting started, this time in the shipyards as they try to plug the bulker gap. Maybe the game’s not over yet. So if you want a nice relaxing summer, our advice is don’t watch The Seventh Seal.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 24 July 15
U.S PRODUCED 17.2 MMST OF COAL FOR THE WEEK ENDED JULY 18; FELL 11.5% YEAR ON YEAR
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.2 million shor ...
Friday, 24 July 15
THE IMPACT OF COLLAPSING CHINESE COAL IMPORTS - CLARKSONS
Global seaborne coal trade is currently projected to drop 1% y-o-y in 2015, which would be the first annual decline in almost three decades. The dr ...
Thursday, 23 July 15
ELEVEN NEW NICKEL SMELTERS ARE TO BE BUILT IN INDONESIA OVER THE NEXT TWO YEARS AT A COST OF $1.4 BILLION
Indonesia’s Most Reputable Nickel Event
Eleven new nickel smelters are to be built in Indonesia over the next two years at a cost of $1. ...
Thursday, 23 July 15
THE CAPESIZE SEGMENT KEPT FOUNDING SUPPORT ON INCREASED DEMAND FROM CHINESE STEEL MILLS - INTERMODAL
The Dry Bulk market closed off on Friday (17July 2015) noting substantial gains and the BDI surpassing the 1,000 points level for the first time af ...
Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, w ...
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Showing 2906 to 2910 news of total 6871 |
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
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