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Tuesday, 04 August 15
SHIPPING CYCLES - A CHESS GAME YOU DON'T WANT TO LOSE - CLARKSONS
 Ingmar Bergman’s classic movie The Seventh Seal is about a knight who, during the Black Death, challenges Death to a chess match, in the hope that while the game continues he can put off his demise. This grim epic could be seen as a metaphor for the daunting progress through long shipping cycles, as one risk-laden move in the toxic chess game follows another.
August 2007 – The Game Starts
Today’s cycle started eight years ago in 2007. It was an epic year. Capesize earnings averaged over $110,000/day and merchant shipbuilding investment reached a record $229 billion (excluding offshore). But there was good reason to be apprehensive. In August the first signs of the financial crisis hit Europe, as interbank investors grew paranoid about the vulnerability of their counterparties to CDO exposure, bringing Eurodollar trading to a halt. Meanwhile analysts were worried that the Chinese super-boom would peak out after the Olympic Games in 2008. So although dry bulk investors were still making money and ordering ships, the solitary chess game with destiny had already started.
Mounting A Comeback
Seven years later the chess game is still going on. The financial crisis got off to a more dramatic start than anyone anticipated. In 2008 as panic swept through financial markets and trade credit became almost unobtainable, the world economy, including China, came precariously close to meltdown. But fortunately this time the politicians eased through the crisis successfully. China mounted a heroic infrastructure programme which gave bulkers a very decent boom in 2009-10. Following this the market fluctuated, but reached decent levels in late 2011 and again in late 2013.
Not Deadly Or Distressed?
As recessions go so far the game with destiny has gone quite well. Since the end of 2007 Capesize earnings have averaged $32,300/day and the market has soaked up 490m dwt of new bulkers. In 2013, 104m dwt of bulkers were ordered. So someone in the industry believed bulkers would win their chess game.
But in 2015 the game changed. Capesize earnings averaged only $6,212/day in the first half. For the first time signs of real distress are apparent. After 8 years, dry bulk sentiment finally collapsed and bulker orders fell from 16m dwt in January 2014 to 0.05m dwt in June 2015. A helpful step towards market recovery, but it leaves the shipyards with a problem. Over the last 8 years bulkers were a third of shipyard workload (see inset pie chart). Although tankers and container ships are still being ordered, they show no sign of filling the gap left by bulkers.
Dance Macabre
So there you have it. Bulkers have finally made a meaningful move towards better times by cutting investment. But the game isn’t over yet. They still need a strong world economy and continued Chinese import growth. Meanwhile a new chess game with destiny is getting started, this time in the shipyards as they try to plug the bulker gap. Maybe the game’s not over yet. So if you want a nice relaxing summer, our advice is don’t watch The Seventh Seal.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 19 June 15
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP SLIGHTLY COMPARED TO LAST WEEK; CONTINUES TO BE DOWN FROM LAST YEAR
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.4 million short ...
Friday, 19 June 15
INDONESIA'S COAL-TRAFFICKING PROBLEM REQUIRES IMPARTIAL INQUIRY - JAKARTA GLOBE
Indonesia, the leading supplier to the seaborne thermal coal market, produces 420 million tons of coal per year, according to its official tally.
...
Thursday, 18 June 15
DRY BULK SHIPPING: LOWEST FLEET GROWTH IN 10 YEARS MAY NOT PROVE ENOUGH AS DEMAND IS NOT KEEPING PACE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The demand side of things in the dry bulk market seems unable to keep pace with even the slightest fleet growth, a sign of the demise that the indu ...
Thursday, 18 June 15
THE FAR EAST HANDYSIZE, HANDYMAX, SUPRAMAX MARKET REMAINED STEADY LAST WEEK - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market closed off on Friday (last week) noting small gains on the back of stronger performance in the Panamax segment, w ...
Thursday, 18 June 15
MERCATOR'S KAMSARMAX FIXED WITH CLEARLAKE
COALspot.com: Mercator Lines (Singapore) Limited, a leading Indian-owned international dry bulk shipping company focused on markets such as India, ...
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- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
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