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Tuesday, 04 August 15
SHIPPING CYCLES - A CHESS GAME YOU DON'T WANT TO LOSE - CLARKSONS
 Ingmar Bergman’s classic movie The Seventh Seal is about a knight who, during the Black Death, challenges Death to a chess match, in the hope that while the game continues he can put off his demise. This grim epic could be seen as a metaphor for the daunting progress through long shipping cycles, as one risk-laden move in the toxic chess game follows another.
August 2007 – The Game Starts
Today’s cycle started eight years ago in 2007. It was an epic year. Capesize earnings averaged over $110,000/day and merchant shipbuilding investment reached a record $229 billion (excluding offshore). But there was good reason to be apprehensive. In August the first signs of the financial crisis hit Europe, as interbank investors grew paranoid about the vulnerability of their counterparties to CDO exposure, bringing Eurodollar trading to a halt. Meanwhile analysts were worried that the Chinese super-boom would peak out after the Olympic Games in 2008. So although dry bulk investors were still making money and ordering ships, the solitary chess game with destiny had already started.
Mounting A Comeback
Seven years later the chess game is still going on. The financial crisis got off to a more dramatic start than anyone anticipated. In 2008 as panic swept through financial markets and trade credit became almost unobtainable, the world economy, including China, came precariously close to meltdown. But fortunately this time the politicians eased through the crisis successfully. China mounted a heroic infrastructure programme which gave bulkers a very decent boom in 2009-10. Following this the market fluctuated, but reached decent levels in late 2011 and again in late 2013.
Not Deadly Or Distressed?
As recessions go so far the game with destiny has gone quite well. Since the end of 2007 Capesize earnings have averaged $32,300/day and the market has soaked up 490m dwt of new bulkers. In 2013, 104m dwt of bulkers were ordered. So someone in the industry believed bulkers would win their chess game.
But in 2015 the game changed. Capesize earnings averaged only $6,212/day in the first half. For the first time signs of real distress are apparent. After 8 years, dry bulk sentiment finally collapsed and bulker orders fell from 16m dwt in January 2014 to 0.05m dwt in June 2015. A helpful step towards market recovery, but it leaves the shipyards with a problem. Over the last 8 years bulkers were a third of shipyard workload (see inset pie chart). Although tankers and container ships are still being ordered, they show no sign of filling the gap left by bulkers.
Dance Macabre
So there you have it. Bulkers have finally made a meaningful move towards better times by cutting investment. But the game isn’t over yet. They still need a strong world economy and continued Chinese import growth. Meanwhile a new chess game with destiny is getting started, this time in the shipyards as they try to plug the bulker gap. Maybe the game’s not over yet. So if you want a nice relaxing summer, our advice is don’t watch The Seventh Seal.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 17 June 15
PANAMAX RATE AVERAGED $22.82 PMT IN THE FIRST 10 DAYS OF JUNE FOR THE GRAIN ROUTE FROM SANTOS, BRAZIL, TO QINGDAO, CHINA - INTERMODAL
This year, Brazil will be exporting a record 96 million tons of soybean crop and starting in August the country will begin shipping a second corn c ...
Tuesday, 16 June 15
MERS: POTENTIAL CHARTERPARTY IMPLICATIONS - CLYDE & CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
South Korea's current outbreak of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) has been the focus of much international at ...
Tuesday, 16 June 15
Q3 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP PRICE DOWN 50 CENTS OVER PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q3 2015 gains month on month but declined week over week, this past week.
The Q3 swap was clim ...
Tuesday, 16 June 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS: PRICES MOVED UP ON THE WEEK
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q3' 2015 rose month over month and week over week.
The Q3 swap was up US$ 1.70 ...
Monday, 15 June 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP: Q1'16 DELIVERY CLOSED 1.14% LOWER THAN Q4'15 DELIVERY PRICE
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery up $ 1.10 per MT (2.47%) month over month to US$ 45.67 per mt. The swap ...
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- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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