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Tuesday, 04 August 15
SHIPPING CYCLES - A CHESS GAME YOU DON'T WANT TO LOSE - CLARKSONS
 Ingmar Bergman’s classic movie The Seventh Seal is about a knight who, during the Black Death, challenges Death to a chess match, in the hope that while the game continues he can put off his demise. This grim epic could be seen as a metaphor for the daunting progress through long shipping cycles, as one risk-laden move in the toxic chess game follows another.
August 2007 – The Game Starts
Today’s cycle started eight years ago in 2007. It was an epic year. Capesize earnings averaged over $110,000/day and merchant shipbuilding investment reached a record $229 billion (excluding offshore). But there was good reason to be apprehensive. In August the first signs of the financial crisis hit Europe, as interbank investors grew paranoid about the vulnerability of their counterparties to CDO exposure, bringing Eurodollar trading to a halt. Meanwhile analysts were worried that the Chinese super-boom would peak out after the Olympic Games in 2008. So although dry bulk investors were still making money and ordering ships, the solitary chess game with destiny had already started.
Mounting A Comeback
Seven years later the chess game is still going on. The financial crisis got off to a more dramatic start than anyone anticipated. In 2008 as panic swept through financial markets and trade credit became almost unobtainable, the world economy, including China, came precariously close to meltdown. But fortunately this time the politicians eased through the crisis successfully. China mounted a heroic infrastructure programme which gave bulkers a very decent boom in 2009-10. Following this the market fluctuated, but reached decent levels in late 2011 and again in late 2013.
Not Deadly Or Distressed?
As recessions go so far the game with destiny has gone quite well. Since the end of 2007 Capesize earnings have averaged $32,300/day and the market has soaked up 490m dwt of new bulkers. In 2013, 104m dwt of bulkers were ordered. So someone in the industry believed bulkers would win their chess game.
But in 2015 the game changed. Capesize earnings averaged only $6,212/day in the first half. For the first time signs of real distress are apparent. After 8 years, dry bulk sentiment finally collapsed and bulker orders fell from 16m dwt in January 2014 to 0.05m dwt in June 2015. A helpful step towards market recovery, but it leaves the shipyards with a problem. Over the last 8 years bulkers were a third of shipyard workload (see inset pie chart). Although tankers and container ships are still being ordered, they show no sign of filling the gap left by bulkers.
Dance Macabre
So there you have it. Bulkers have finally made a meaningful move towards better times by cutting investment. But the game isn’t over yet. They still need a strong world economy and continued Chinese import growth. Meanwhile a new chess game with destiny is getting started, this time in the shipyards as they try to plug the bulker gap. Maybe the game’s not over yet. So if you want a nice relaxing summer, our advice is don’t watch The Seventh Seal.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 10 June 15
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - STELIOS KOLLINTZAS
As we go through the end of the 2nd quarter of the year it is evident that the tanker shipping markets have been rewarding and definitely been show ...
Wednesday, 10 June 15
WORLD COAL MARKET HEADING TO NEW EQUILIBRIUM: MINISTER - JAKARTA POST
Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Sudirman Said has said the world’s coal market is heading towards a new balance, which will make Indone ...
Wednesday, 10 June 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP ROSE W-O-W AND M-O-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q3 2015 gains month on month and week over week, this past week.
The Q3 swap was climbed by $ ...
Tuesday, 09 June 15
GLOBALCOAL IMPLEMENTS VOLUMETRIC SIZE LIMITS IN RICHARDS BAY MARKET
COALspot.com: globalCOAL today announced that following recent market consultation, it will limit bids, offers and trades in the fixed price Phys R ...
Tuesday, 09 June 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS DECLINED M-O-M, W-O-W
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q3' 2015 declined month over month and week over week.
The Q3 swap was fell US$ ...
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
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