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Tuesday, 04 August 15
SHIPPING CYCLES - A CHESS GAME YOU DON'T WANT TO LOSE - CLARKSONS
 Ingmar Bergman’s classic movie The Seventh Seal is about a knight who, during the Black Death, challenges Death to a chess match, in the hope that while the game continues he can put off his demise. This grim epic could be seen as a metaphor for the daunting progress through long shipping cycles, as one risk-laden move in the toxic chess game follows another.
August 2007 – The Game Starts
Today’s cycle started eight years ago in 2007. It was an epic year. Capesize earnings averaged over $110,000/day and merchant shipbuilding investment reached a record $229 billion (excluding offshore). But there was good reason to be apprehensive. In August the first signs of the financial crisis hit Europe, as interbank investors grew paranoid about the vulnerability of their counterparties to CDO exposure, bringing Eurodollar trading to a halt. Meanwhile analysts were worried that the Chinese super-boom would peak out after the Olympic Games in 2008. So although dry bulk investors were still making money and ordering ships, the solitary chess game with destiny had already started.
Mounting A Comeback
Seven years later the chess game is still going on. The financial crisis got off to a more dramatic start than anyone anticipated. In 2008 as panic swept through financial markets and trade credit became almost unobtainable, the world economy, including China, came precariously close to meltdown. But fortunately this time the politicians eased through the crisis successfully. China mounted a heroic infrastructure programme which gave bulkers a very decent boom in 2009-10. Following this the market fluctuated, but reached decent levels in late 2011 and again in late 2013.
Not Deadly Or Distressed?
As recessions go so far the game with destiny has gone quite well. Since the end of 2007 Capesize earnings have averaged $32,300/day and the market has soaked up 490m dwt of new bulkers. In 2013, 104m dwt of bulkers were ordered. So someone in the industry believed bulkers would win their chess game.
But in 2015 the game changed. Capesize earnings averaged only $6,212/day in the first half. For the first time signs of real distress are apparent. After 8 years, dry bulk sentiment finally collapsed and bulker orders fell from 16m dwt in January 2014 to 0.05m dwt in June 2015. A helpful step towards market recovery, but it leaves the shipyards with a problem. Over the last 8 years bulkers were a third of shipyard workload (see inset pie chart). Although tankers and container ships are still being ordered, they show no sign of filling the gap left by bulkers.
Dance Macabre
So there you have it. Bulkers have finally made a meaningful move towards better times by cutting investment. But the game isn’t over yet. They still need a strong world economy and continued Chinese import growth. Meanwhile a new chess game with destiny is getting started, this time in the shipyards as they try to plug the bulker gap. Maybe the game’s not over yet. So if you want a nice relaxing summer, our advice is don’t watch The Seventh Seal.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 04 June 15
DRY BULK MARKET FAILED TO OFFER ANY POSITIVE SURPRISES - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: This has been another week that the Dry Bulk market failed to offer any positive surprises, while the BDI, which is still faring belo ...
Wednesday, 03 June 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - VASSILIS LOGOTHETIS
For some time now the Dry Bulk market has been severely affected by China’s slowing GDP growth rate that occurs in the background of increase ...
Tuesday, 02 June 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL Q3 SWAP ADVANCED 1.73% MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q3 2015 gains month on month and lost week over week, this past week.
The Q3 swap was climbed ...
Tuesday, 02 June 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS; Q3'15 CLOSED HIGHER THAN Q1'16
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q3' 2015 up month over month and week over week.
The Q3 swap was up US$ 0.80 (1 ...
Monday, 01 June 15
35,000 MW POWER PLANTS TO BOOST COAL CONSUMPTION - JP
The government’s program to develop 35,000 megawatt (MW) power plants will increase domestic coal consumption, which currently stands at arou ...
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- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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